Learning From Kodak's Demise [Private-Sector & Political Duopolies Never Dream People May Abandon]

The human brain is capable of memorizing 67,890 digits of pi, composing side two of Exile on Main Street, and inventing a dog-to-human translation device called the Bowlingual. Yet, we often-brilliant, always-innovating bipeds find it impossible to imagine changing the trajectory of the world we think we live in by more than a few degrees at any given moment. Whatever dominates today we assume will dominate tomorrow. This is true for our private lives, this is true for commerce, and this is especially true for politics.

Tectonic shifts in the course of human events are almost never predicted ahead of time, even by the very people who stomp on the cracks. When asked in August 1989, only a few months after the electrifying demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, whether the communist East Bloc would ever be democratic and free in his lifetime, Czech economist Vàclav Klaus said no. Less than five months later, he was the first finance minister of a free Czechoslovakia. Morgan Stanley trader Howie Hubler lost $9 billion on a single stock market bet in 2007, not because he didn’t think the bubble of mortgage-backed derivative securities would pop, but because he couldn’t conceive of the price reduction exceeding 8 percent. For all but the last 10 days of 2007, the famed Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) trading system for predicting major-party presidential nominees established as its clear Republican favorite the famous ex-mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani. Yet, when it came time for people to actually vote in the primaries and caucuses, Giuliani lost in more than 40 states

For everyone: Interesting history on Public-Sector Duopolies and whether Government Duopolies could follow the same path.

"As technology business consultant Nilofer Merchant has aptly put it, “The Web turns old industries [and government] on their head. Industries that have had monopolies or highly profitable duopolies are the ones most likely to be completely gutted when a more powerful, more efficient system comes along.”

"We need to hasten the inevitable arrival of that more efficient system on the doorstep of America’s most stubborn, foot-dragging, reactionary sector—government at the local, state, and especially federal levels, and its officially authorized customer-hating agents, the Democrats and Republicans."

In January, Gallup released its latest study on the question of political self-identification, finding "the proportion of independents in 2011 was the largest in at least 60 years"--a stunning 40 percent. Democrats were at a desultory 31 percent, and Republicans proved utterly unable to capitalize on a bad, Democrat-led economy, trending downward to 27 percent."

"No corner of the economy, of cultural life, or even of our personal lives hasn’t felt the gale-force winds of this change. Except government"..."Unlike government and its sub-entities, Kodak [the brand that was "always" considered Gold] couldn’t count on a guaranteed revenue stream."

"Kodachrome—subject not just of a hit Paul Simon song but of the 1954 antitrust settlement that the federal government was trying to maintain four decades later—vanished from stores in 2009, and developers stopped processing the stuff for good on New Year’s Day 2010..closed scores of plants, laid off more than 10,000 employees, and has now filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy"..."As recently as 1994, long after Japan’s Fujifilm had entered the scene, the Justice Department argued that the antitrust settlements should remain in force, since Kodak had “long dominated” the industry."

"When duopolies bleed share of a captive market, something potentially revolutionary is afoot."

The full essay was educational and brought into sharp focus the unease I felt about Kodak since around the year 2000. Up until then I still used my three Nikon and one 6x6 cameras, as well as the Kodak digital camera I bought in 1998.
The irony is that I understand Kodak researched and developed digital photography, but pursued its improvement and perfection half-heartedly. But it got worse.

Kodak continued to the very end to pursue and promote means to maintain their grasp of the paper print. Unsuccessfully. Rejected totally by people like myself, who spent tens of thousands of dollars on Kodak products over our lifetimes. What sort of bonehead leadership and middle management chose the suicidal path?

Another "too big to fail dinosaur?"

The truly satisfying lesson that the political and union bureaucracies refuse to see is encouraging. Their worst nightmare is the Tea Party, a philosophy that they are doomed to succumb to, unless they are willing to resist even if they must resort to fascism or other form of totalitarianism.

Also destined to fail.

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