No, Palin was not guaranteed a win, and I say that as someone who advocated her selection as VP in 2008 and was an advocate for her for president from the ‘08 election until Oct 5, when she said she would not run.
Gov. Palin said it herself on Fox Noose last night. She said that if she was in the race, the GOP establishment would be doing to her exactly what it is doing to Newt right now.
Both Palin and Newt are hated by the left, the media and the Vichy GOP (including both moderates and ConservativesLite®).
I was also sure that she would win, but I knew what was in store for her if she had - a long, hard slog which would put a lot more wear and tear on her family, and no guaranteed outcome.
Unlike Sarah, Newt has no small children at home. His kids are all grown up and have families of their own. Three of hers are still in school. Also, she couldn’t have run from Alaska. She would have by necessity had to move to Arizona and run from there. Obviously, she did not want to uproot her family and do that.
Both Newt and Sarah are/would-have-been long shots, but she is guaranteed a major role in his administration if he can somehow beat the long odds and pull a win out of the fire.
I don’t fault Palin for not running. Not at all.
I just fault her for waiting so long to declare that she wasn’t. So many of us put our hopes in her so strongly that we were left wandering in the desert for a while.