Posted on 01/25/2012 1:50:05 PM PST by Utmost Certainty
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are locked in a virtual dead heat just days before Florida’s pivotal Jan. 31 primary, according to a new TIME/CNN/ORC poll.
Romney earns the backing of 36% of the state’s registered Republicans, a slight edge over the 34% who prefer Gingrich. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who was belatedly declared the winner of the Iowa caucus, came in third in the survey, notching support from 11% of respondents. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who is skipping Florida to concentrate on smaller caucus states, trails with 9%. After three states produced three different winners, Florida has emerged as a turning point in the turbulent GOP primary season. The winner-take-all tussle for 50 convention delegates will test whether Gingrich’s momentum can survive a collision with Romney’s fat wallet and organizational clout in a large, diverse swing state with numerous media markets. In the days following Gingrich’s commanding victory in South Carolina, Romney’s lieutenants have launched bruising attacks on the former Speaker, recasting him as an unreliable leader who used his Washington connections to cash in as a lobbyist.
(Excerpt) Read more at swampland.time.com ...
Not good...just a few days ago Newt was leading
This concerns me since Fla is a winner take ALL. Mitt would gain 50 delegates IF he wins.
Of course, the GOP has penalized FLA and taken away half their delegates.
Romney 31%
Gingrich 39%
There... fixed it..
Why are they polling registered voters instead of likely voters?
369 Rep-registered likely voters
2/3rds of survey was completed prior to Monday evening’s debate, 1/3rd was completed after the debate
A gold star for you - that is the key question. Newt's voters are a lot more excited than Romney's tepid supporters. Even those who don't love Newt hate Romney so much that they will be there. To be fair to CNN, they normally go with registered voters, so this wasn't a particularly pro-Romney decision (and to be honest they do that because registered voters are always more liberal than likely voters, so this was a pro-liberalism decision).
It’s 369 likely Republican primary voters.
Small sample size, particularly for a state like FL, so that puts the #s in question.
Still, Newt is having a bad day it seems, so the threat is very real here.
All the news that's fit to manipulate.
A FL win, however close the vote, puts Romney back in the driver seat to inevitability.
There are several pro-Romney states coming up in Feb including Mormon-heavy Nevada and his birth state of Michigan where his dad was governor.
This is why it is CRITICAL Santorum (and his voters) consider very carefully whether they's for stopping Romney or not.
Katie, I am in Florida, and I can tell you that here in SoFLA the story is about who’s got the energy. Overwhelmingly it is Newt, locally and nationally.
They included 369 Republican-registered and likely voters. Out of 1,500+ polled, they only included the 369 subset that was both registered and likely.
I just won’t be relieved until the Fla election is over and done with...it would be a great victory for Newt. We need Fla
Thanks! I have to stop watching the msm and even going to drudge. I am saving your link.
They will "steer" they're results as reality takes hold and they realize they have been wrong, so Newt will start to "win".
They have to turn their lemons into lemonade or face the embarrassment of having been WRONG all along.
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