Amazing to have two decimal places for accuracy for a simulation. Care to share your methods?
yeah, I’ll be releasing them later today.
So far with IA and NH, I’ve been pretty good. What’s gotten me has been over-than expected turnout and I keep underrating Ron Paul. There’s definitely a Paul-Huntsman connection and I expect at least 50% of Huntsman’s SC supporters will go to Paul, while the other half goes to Romney.
Basically what I do is project County by County analysis, looking at voter totals from 2004/2008 to determine 2012. This time, unlike IA or NH, I’m leaving turnout flat with just a slight increase because the large increase of voters haven’t materialized.
The formula is pretty simple:
Romney gets his 2008 Vote Total + 60% of 08 McCain voters + 20% of Rudy Voters. Now it looks like he’ll get close to 50% of Huntsman supporters.
Gingrich gets 15% Huckabee Supporters, 80% Thompson, and 35% McCain
Santorum gets 75% Huckabee, 10% Thompson, and whatever little vote in the county there was for Duncan Hunter
Perry gets 10% Huckabee, 10% Thompson, and 2% McCain made up of the Veterans
Huntsman got 80% of Rudy and 3% McCain. This vote will now split between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
Paul gets his 08 vote total, plus the majority of whatever increase in voter turnout there is in the county to account for the in flux of moderates/liberals invading the primary.