Posted on 01/15/2012 6:33:34 PM PST by Perdogg
Jon Huntsman was still in the race?
How do you say, “Sayonara!”, in Mandarin?
OK, then.
Huntsman gone? Good riddance to the non-factor.
It is utterly irrational.
It is the voters being influenced by the news media and the reports of the previous election, and how those results are spun. In fact, I imagine they studiously record the polls of the next state before and after in order to glean the best way to more effectively move the voters. They wanted to pump up Santorum. They won't push Newt if he comes close in SC because it's all about stopping Newt now.
That was my first thought too, at the very least he promised Huntsman would be on his VP short list.
Who?.........
I toyed with the idea of Huntsman too after Perry fell apart. I thought perhaps he was getting a bum rap for being Obama's China ambassador, especially since he had consistent conservative positions on issues like pro-Life and he sounded good in the debates. But his record on spending was horrible and he had that arrogant statement on Global Warming. Thus, while I don't think he was ever as bad as people made him out to be (an Obama or Romney plant or some liberal Republican), in the end he had moderate positions that I just couldn't get over.
yeah, I’ll be releasing them later today.
So far with IA and NH, I’ve been pretty good. What’s gotten me has been over-than expected turnout and I keep underrating Ron Paul. There’s definitely a Paul-Huntsman connection and I expect at least 50% of Huntsman’s SC supporters will go to Paul, while the other half goes to Romney.
Basically what I do is project County by County analysis, looking at voter totals from 2004/2008 to determine 2012. This time, unlike IA or NH, I’m leaving turnout flat with just a slight increase because the large increase of voters haven’t materialized.
The formula is pretty simple:
Romney gets his 2008 Vote Total + 60% of 08 McCain voters + 20% of Rudy Voters. Now it looks like he’ll get close to 50% of Huntsman supporters.
Gingrich gets 15% Huckabee Supporters, 80% Thompson, and 35% McCain
Santorum gets 75% Huckabee, 10% Thompson, and whatever little vote in the county there was for Duncan Hunter
Perry gets 10% Huckabee, 10% Thompson, and 2% McCain made up of the Veterans
Huntsman got 80% of Rudy and 3% McCain. This vote will now split between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
Paul gets his 08 vote total, plus the majority of whatever increase in voter turnout there is in the county to account for the in flux of moderates/liberals invading the primary.
Who ever gets Huntsman supporters ain’t gettin’ much.
The good news is it futher clarifies the conservative/Pubbie primary picture. It would be wonderful if Romney(care), Gingrich, Paul and Perry would see the light and drop out as well.
It should be obvious there is no excitement for them. Give the real conservative a chance. Go Santorum!
I got one after posting — I felt better, because I felt left out before. Although it seemed like a joke, since it was a repeat of the post with the made-up poll numbers.
My governor (Bob McDonnell) is probably going to endorse in the next couple of days. Don’t know who, but he’s expressed a strong preference for a guy who has executive experience already, which at this point leaves Romney and Perry. He endorsed Thompson over Romney in 2008, so I doubt he’s all that thrilled to endorse Romney, but with Perry having been discarded already, even though he’s tons better than Romney, that doesn’t leave much room.
I was expecting he’d endorse Perry at some point, but I presume now that depends on whether he thinks Perry has any chance at all to win. I wish he had endorsed him back in November — maybe it would have helped Perry get signatures for Virginia. I also wish he’d consider a non-Governor.
On the other hand, he has first-hand knowledge of these guys, having worked with them over the years. He is a known solid conservative, and his ability to judge the candidates is probably superior to mine because of his additional knowledge.
Newt was for the individual mandate before Romney was.
Thanks Perdogg.
You know, Newt worries me a little as a polished Washington insider. I do like alot about him though.
I kinda think a Romney / Christie ticket could catch fire. Got to think who’s going to take the Independent vote.
Just my $ .02
I give McDonnell credit for working hard and having a pretty good record of bringing big businesses into Virginia, but he has been far from a solid conservative.
An all-Mormon ticket? No way. If Romney made any promises, it wouldn’t have been the VP short list. From Huntsman’s perspective, a cabinet office might be more attractive, particularly if he has delusions of doing better in a future Presidential race.
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