GOP Presidential Primary: Total Numbers after Iowa and New Hamshire

jeffhead.com ^ | 10 January 2012 | Jeff HEad

[Jeff Head]

GOP Presidential Primary: Total Numbers after Iowa and New Hamshire:

Thought I would create a thread that shows the totals of the primaries thus far in terms of total votes, totals by candidate, percentages, and delegates thus far.

So, here it is

Total Votes Cast (with percent in parens):

Iowa = 121,914 (33.57%)
New Hampshire = 241,299 (66.43%)
Total Votes = 363,213

Total Vote/Percent and Delegates by Canddiate :

Romney = 126,185 (34.74%) (12 Delegates)
Paul = 82,122 (22.61%) (10 Delegates)
Santorum = 52,921 (14.57%) (7 Delegates)
Huntsman = 41,650 (11.52%) (2 Delegates)
Gingrich = 39,321 (10.83%) 2 Delegates
Perry = 14,309 (3.94%) (2 Delegates)
Bachman = 6,416 (1.77%) (0 Delegates)

As I have said before, the time must come quickly for the Santorum, Gingrich and Perry camps to come together into a single candidate to challenge Romney. If they had done so, at this point that candidate would be looking at:

Conservative Challenger = 106,551 (29.34%) (11 Delegates)

That would be a strong 2nd place going away from Romney's home turf into South Carolina. When Hunstman drops out, most of his votes will go to Romney, so that would serve to tighten it up...and also split Romney's vote a bit as long as Hunstman stays in.

If the conservative candidates continue to split themselves three ways, then I predict Romney either wins SC or comes in a close second, and the same thing happens in Florida. Most are not talking about getting out until after Florida. I believe that if Perry, for example, has a poor showing in SC then he should throw in behind the leading conservative.

If they wait until after Florida, and if Romney wins both SC and Florida (which is possible in this split vote because he is leading in the polls in both states now), then it may be too late.

[Jeff Head]

Interesting numbers all together from the first two primaries. I have a spread sheet where I am tracking it and will add more as each State comes in, SC, FL, NV, AZ, MI, etc.

[joe fonebone]

so mcromney has 12 delegates..... he only needs another 1,428 to get the nomination.... it is nowhere near time to panic... relax people, a moderate and a liberal state have voted for the liberal candidate... was anything else expected?

[Oshkalaboomboom]

The bottom line is once again conservatives are getting a milquetoast candidate that the GOP will assume will get us to tow the line once the general election comes. The Democratic party isn’t the only one with a plantation.

[traditional1]

"When Hunstman drops out, most of his votes will go to Romney"

Oh...but Romeny is a "Conservative"....and Huntsman's votes have been from Liberals, Democrat-crossovers, and RINO's.

Now, why then, would Romney-the-RINO pick up all the Huntsman "support"?

LOL

Romney-the-RINO could run as a Democrat, and be called a "Moderate".

We Conservatives are SO screwed.

[Jeff Head]

Conservative candidates need to coalese into a single candidate to face Romney...or they will lose. They should do so immediately after SC. I am afraid if they wait until after Florida, and if Romney (who is leading in the polls in SC and FL - mainly because of the conservative split) wins SC ad FL...it may be too late.

I believe that this is what these numbers are clearly saying.

Santorum, Perry, Newt...find a way to come together...soonest!

[Jeff Head]

Actually, yes. Romney was not expected to win Iowa...and he was expected to do less in New Hampshire. Well, because of the split, he won Iowa, and he got 40% in New Hampshire and is going to SC riding a wave and ahead in the polls there...again, precisely because the conservative vote is split.

Again, before FL, I believe the conservative candidates need to boil down to a single challenger to Mitt.

[Jeff Head]

Those crossing over...and the independents who went for Huntsman will vote for Romney to help try and knock off the conservative candidates.

If all three conservatives get together however, I do not believe it will work. Outside of Michigan and Nevada, the conservative candidate could win Florida, Arizona, and on from there to Super-Tuesday and Texas thereafter.

[bearsgirl90]

This is a great idea!! Thanks, Jeff! :-)

[Ingtar]

At this point, there are good sized groups that will not vote for each of those you mentioned. Some of the anti-Santorum people in Newt’s camp seem to prefer Romney to Santorum. There are those in the Santorum camp who will not vote for Newt, especially after some of the comments that have come out of Newt’s followers.

[Vigilanteman]

It becomes even more interesting when you compare % of delegates to % of votes:

Romney = 126,185 (34.74%) (12 Delegates, 34.29%)
Paul = 82,122 (22.61%) (10 Delegates, 28.57%)
Santorum = 52,921 (14.57%) (7 Delegates, 20%)
Huntsman = 41,650 (11.52%) (2 Delegates, 5.71%)
Gingrich = 39,321 (10.83%) (2 Delegates , 5.71%)
Perry = 14,309 (3.94%) (2 Delegates, 5.71%)
Bachman = 6,416 (1.77%) (0 Delegates)

It also pretty much points to Santorum as the logical conservative alternative, a statement I made before Iowa.

Santorum and Gingrich are pretty much going after the same demographic and will poll within a percent or two of each other until one drops out and endorses the other. Newt is the logical guy to drop out and endorse Santorum anyway you look at it.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed...and the quicker they come together behind a single conservative, the less of those problems there will be.

Newt can shoot himself in the foot (as can the others). I believe this whole attack by Newt regarding Bain Capitol is one such moment. Most people I talk to do not like it and feel (though we know the left will use it) that it is hurting Newt more than it is hurting Romney.

These guys need to come together and find a single candidate, then stick to very conservative prinicples and differentiate those against principally Obama and that will solidify the base, bring them together, and help overcome Romney.

Anyhow, just my opinion.

[ScottinVA]

The talk show host on Norfolk’s WNIS theorized this a.m. the GOP establishment is gravitating toward Romney because it has resigned itself that Obama is unbeatable. They seek to lose gracefully to Obama, with hopes of pulling in enough moderate, squishy middle votes to eke out a majority in the Senate and hold the House.

Considering the RINOs’ comfort level with being second-place finishers, I can’t help but think that theory has merit.

[bigbob]

Not that it will change the number of delegates, but the Iowa caucus results have not yet been certified, and there is a challenge that would give the win to Santorum but a handful of votes.

It should temper Mitt’s enthusiasm to remember that he only has two more delegates than a man many people consider to be barking mad ;-)

[Jeff Head]

That's a good percent to add in there...and actually is the most important one in the end.

In that split, Mitt maintains his similar percentage...but the single conservative is brought up, and his percentage becomes much closer to Romney's.

Romney 12 at 34.29%
Single Conservtive 11 at 31.42%
Paul 10 at 28.57%
Huntsman 2 at 5.71

[traditional1]

I, too, think that the Conservative-leaning Candidates should decide on ONE of them to become the Anybody-but-Mitt Candidate, get behind them, and push to get the Nomination.

Ron Paul's voterbase is a bunch of left-leaning kids and aged hippies, and will probably split to Romney, and to Obama. They merely cloud the process, and don't allow for a TRUE Conservative to step up in the process.

[who knows what evil?]

They seek to lose gracefully to Obama, with hopes of pulling in enough moderate, squishy middle votes to eke out a majority in the Senate and hold the House.

My parents and grandparents would have NEVER surrendered 'gracefully' to communists.

[ScottinVA]

Nor mine. Ughhh.

[who knows what evil?]

I do not believe Paul is going to see similar numbers in southern states...NH is full of libertarian free-state types that ‘mask’ themselves as Republicans...that won’t be the case in South Carolina and Florida. If Paul drops off by 15 per cent; who ‘picks up’ those votes?

[GonzoGOP]

Considering the RINOs’ comfort level with being second-place finishers, I can’t help but think that theory has merit.

There is another theory. The establishment doesn't thing the country can be saved, and doesn't want to be blamed when the house of debt and false promises comes falling down. It reminds me of an old Bugs Bunny routine. Bugs tells Sam that the ship is sinking. Sam jumps into the lifeboat, but Bugs pulls him out and reminds him, "The Captain goes down with his ship." Sam instantly resigns, puts the captains hat on bugs and tells Bugs he is the captain.

Romney is a sure loser. But that might just be what the establishment is looking for. They don't want a winner they want a patsy. Someone to take the fall just in case he does win.

[Jeff Head]

Well, the latest SC poll has it this way:

Romney = 31.8%
Gingrich = 24.2%
Santorum = 19.5%
Pauul = 11.0%
Perry = 6.6%
Huntsman = 5.1%

The three remaining conservatives total 50.3% right now. But Romeny is leading the split field.

All the more reason for them to come together becaue SC is a winner take all. If the split vote goives Romney the win, he walks away with all of those delegates.