Posted on 01/10/2012 3:02:31 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Republicans do not need to nominate a candidate anytime soon. On the contrary, if they want to beat President Obama, they should take their time before settling on a nominee.
In January of 2010, Harry Reid looked like a “dead man walking” politically. Fourteen percent of Nevadans were unemployed, and he was having a hard time getting above 43 percent in most polls. There was only one way he could win: destroy his Republican opponent before he or she ever got out of the blocks.
[snip]
Ending the primary season early simply allows Team Obama more time to focus their fire on the GOP nominee. Spending the next five months under a blistering assault from the Obama “Death Star” in Chicago, aided by super PACs and the media, could be a disaster for Republicans.
As for the argument that the GOP nominee will suffer from depleted resources, don’t believe it. In 2010, Angle raised $28 million dollars against Harry Reid in only four months. The Republican nominee for president has never lost because of a lack of money. He will have no trouble raising money against Obama.
[snip]
A prolonged primary helped Obama in 2008. It helped Democrats identify tens of thousands of new voters in battleground states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. And it gave Dems a priceless opportunity to attack the incumbent party while casual voters were paying attention for once.
[snip]
At the end of February, the Republican National Committee will have awarded only 174 RNC delegates out of the 1,143 needed to lock up the nomination.
A long primary would allow Republicans to protect their nominee, grow the party, and avoid handing Obama an early target.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I find it sickening that 90 percent of this country has no chance to vote in a primary because the media and the party declare the damn race over after 2 events!
When the pundits start telling us to wrap this thing up quickly (ala Karl Rove) then you know we need to let the process play out. Let the VOTERS decide, not the media..no matter whose side they seem to be on.
This will go on because the media needs to shake more money out of the candidates. The media controls this show and they want a horse-rac so they’ll run with the lines needed to keep it going and rake in the loot from all those so-called “negative adsâ€. No surprises here, it’s obvious. The good side of this is let’s have all this class warfare demagoguery now and make it old news to blunt their impact next October when Obama starts babbling about how he’s protecting the middle class.And a pox on anyone who calls themself a conservative and falls for this 99% class envy nonsense.
Mitt,Newt,Santorum and Paul are going to come out of SC pretty much tied so it will be up to Fla.
Newt with most of the conservatives, Santorum with the evangelicals, Mitt with the RINOs and Paul with the nuts and liberal Democrat crossovers.
Jim Rob’s poll:
Poll time: Started: Posted on Mon Jan 9 13:15:29 2012 by Jim Robinson
Closed: Edited on Tue Jan 10 05:33:58 2012 by Jim Robinson.
Newt ——— 225 -—59.7%
Perry -——— 77 -— 20.4%
Santorum — - 75 -— 19.9%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830665/posts
I actually agree with what you are saying. It is a most prudent choice of strategy. No pushback on that one from me.
However, there will come a point (for most it will be South Carolina, and ofcourse there is the rock of Florida waiting to smash anyone left who is not doing well in the polls) where those who are lagging behind in terms of performance will need to make a tough decision. A decision similar to the one that Bachmann made and Perry (appeared) to mull over.
If, say, Candidate X (could be Perry, Gingrich, Santorum...) ends up doing badly in South Carolina, they will have to make a decision on whether it makes sense to continue. Later on the same question will come up in Florida. Why is that key? Simply because if you look at the polls (whichever poll one looks at) it is crystal clear that Romney is struggling at a quarter of the tally, which means that the 'not-Romney's' are around 75%, and once you take out Ron Paul that leaves Conservative-esque candidates at around 50-55%. However, the 'Conservative vote' is so spread out that it makes Romney the 'frontrunner' and Paul a strong second and/or third.
Now, if Candidate X (whoever that might be) crashes and burns in South Carolina, he should give thought to whether he should continue running. Because if the Conservative Vote continues to be split-up then what will happen will be Romney coming first and Paul (of all people) second. It is the archetypical divide-and-rule strategy that has been proven VERY effective for a couple of centuries now (even longer if you take into account Roman military and administrative exploits). You divide a strong opponent into smaller sub-sets, and have the smaller sub-sets engage each other, and you can take over the world. Right now you can see a lot of angst and vitriol all over the Conservative spectrum. Around September last year there was a lot of cr@p happening on Fr even (I remember sending you some posts on that, and you were not even that bad ...there was one pro-Perry supporter who got zotted for plain insulting other people). Then there was a backlash on Perry from supporters of other candidates, primarily Cain supporters. And even now FR is split into 2-3 camps ...the pro Gingrich camp has by far the most people based on the poll conducted by JR, followed by the Santorum and Perry camps (last count Santorum was ahead, but Perry was within striking distance to make it a tie between the two). That is not a bad thing ...everyone doesn't have to buy the same brand of Peanut Butter. What is bad however is the slow-boiling dislike between the various camps. I have seen Perry insulted (in the same way I was saying in September that pro Perry supporters should espouse and promote that positive aspects of their candidate and leave the stupid negativity behind, I also think it is silly for someone to attack a person rather than the positions the person takes. I saw one FReeper attacking Perry's wife even, which was quite unfortunate), I have seen Santorum attacked (some attacks on Santorum have been similar to those used by Liberals ...some sick stuff), and I have seen Gingrich mocked (again out of a Liberal maestro's playbook).
Now, add in Democrats coming in to vote as Republicans in open primaries, and then also add the Ron Paul chaps (if you want to talk about a 'spoiler' Paul is a perfect example). It is very possible for Romney to get the nomination, and it will be a shame if that happens.
Right now there is no need for anyone to leave the race. It is too early, and as I had mentioned a week or two ago it looks like everyone (but Huntsman) had a chance at the top - which is quite unique. Thus in a week or two it is very possible for the polls to show a dramatic change. However, there will come a time (after South Carolina, and definitely by Florida) where the candidates will need to seriously evaluate themselves and their campaigns. The goal for ALL Conservatives is to take out Romney (which is interesting because, for the most part, the candidates have been too busy attacking each other and leaving Romney, again for the most part, scar free), and then after that to face Obama. I know many here think defeating Obama will be easy, but it will not be. There will be around 40% of voters who will vote for him (the core Democrats). He also has the media supporting him full-force. Add to that a fund-raising machine that will go down in history as one of the most capable ones around (and he has been building it up since before the last election). He also has strategists that are good. Add all of that, with the willingness of the media to ignore mistakes and misteps that would hang a Conservative candidate, and Obama is not going to be that easy. We will need to have a candidate who will take out both Romney and Obama (and at the same time nullify the effect of a Paul muddying-of-the-water). As the primaries continue and a candidate who can win against both emerges (whoever it is ...be it Perry, Santorum or Gingrich) then Conservatives will need to start falling behind that candidate.
I predict that after SC you will see the Conservative field get narrowed to two (as the third conservative candidate drops out) ....a Conservative Candidate A and a Conservative Candidate B. The Conservative Candidate A will have a HUGE advantage in the polls over Conservative Candidate B, and as the primaries continue Conservative Candidate B will become more and more irrelevant as more and more conservative voters shift to Conservative Candidate A. This will happen just before or soon after SC, which is why all the candidates are really focusing there. This will also be the change of fortunes for Ron Paul - down (although he will stick around). Thus it will be Conservative Candidate A (getting stronger by the hour), Conservative Candidate B (a vestige that will not fade away but will never burn bright), Ron Paul (who may pull one or two nasty tricks), and Romney (who will have his super PAC machinery trying to take out Conservative Candidate A). At this point the Democrat machine will also start coming into play (so far they have just been laughing at our antics of self-destruction, but then they will come out. I am still convinced that they had something with Sarah not running ...they must have had something on her, but that is just my speculation and it is worth a gallon of warm spit).
I understand why the article is afraid of us giving all those forces a clear target, and I think it makes sense to wait until after South Carolina to identify THE Conservative Candidate A. However ....wait too long and you play right into the hands of Romney (and the person who wrote this is a Romney supporter). Romney will NEVER be the nominee, but we can still cripple ourselves by dragging this too long (as easily as we can cripple ourselves by jumping too quickly). Like many things in life, it is the Goldilocks approach that wins.
Another thing to consider.
Those who are “falling behind” Romney because he can “win,” will be taking a second look once the GOP Primary process moves forward, as they watch his numbers remain unimpressive and start to understand that he isn’t a good nominee choice; maybe he can’t win (I know some say the establishment doesn’t care if he wins, they just want to control the House and Senate). Where will those who want Obama to be a one term president shift their support?
Gov. Rick Perry is the candidate the GOP insider establishment wants to stop at all costs. It should not be their decision. They’re the ones who have brought us this mess.
It is OUR time to choose.
I am not jumping the gun. Just realizing that Mitt’s stragegy is to keep the anti-Romney voted divided as long as possible. I am NOT saying that we should drop down to one anti-Romney after SC unless an absolutely clear anti-Romney winner emerges. But we also cannot afford to have three anti-Romneys in the race after SC. And after FL, we will need to access what the anti-Romney condition looks like after that primary as well.
Unless the anti-Romney vote is evenly divided among the three remaining viable ant-Romneys. Then he can win with 30 percent or even 25 percent.
I didn't think it possible for McCain to win in 2008. That's what a divided field does - changes the dynamic.
Google the writer’s name. Major Romney pimp.
I would ask voters to think long and hard when considering how vulnerable the candiates are in the general election - their baggage, if you will. Once you've done that ask yourself, "Who is the most consistent conservative and has a record to back it up?"
I do not know the author of this editorial other than what is noted at NRO:
Jordan Gehrke is a Republican strategist. He joined Sharron Angle’s campaign as deputy campaign manager following the primary in June 2010. He founded the 999 Fund, a super PAC dedicated to electing Herman Cain.
Jordan Gehrke is a Republican strategist. He joined Sharron Angle’s campaign as deputy campaign manager following the primary in June 2010. He founded the 999 Fund, a super PAC dedicated to electing Herman Cain.
Did you vote in Jim Rob's poll?
Who do you back?
I lean Newt but could support any of the three remaining candidates.
My primary goal is to deny the nomination to Romney, and then go on to defeat Obama. I think all three of the remaining anti-Romneys can do both, but only if the anti-Romney vote is not split apart for too much longer.
Mitt would love nothing more than the game of anti-Romney musical chairs to continue into June. Soon, whoever is the frontrunner needs to go forward and the other two need to drop out.
And he wants that opponent to be none other than one Mitt Romney. Thus guranteeing him a second term.
Third place among the anti-Romney pack of Perry, Santorum and Newt. And I really think Newt needs to win SC among the anti-Romneys to go on. SC should be a strong state for him. If he cannot beat Perry and Santorum there, it would show major structural weakness for his campaign.
Perry and Santorum can't be single-digit laggards.
What is your "candidate support" history for this GOP Primary so far?
And what does that have to do with my position here? You always try to impugn the motives of those taking a position contrary to yours. Could you for JUST ONCE refrain from that crap?
Perry won't pull 10% in SC and will this time head back to the Alamo for the final charge of the illegal mesican college kids.
Oh, us heartless non-forgetting bastards, we just don't forgive being spit on.
But, but, but, Perry is a good Christian, shouldn't we forgive him for being so overbearing?
We will, when he's back serving the good Texacans that don't mind spending their tax money for ILLEGAL ALIENS.
“GOP, What’s Your Hurry? - Obama wants GOP to give him an opponent as quickly as possible”
Donna Brazile’s slip of the tongue in admitting that the Dims want Romney as their opponent is corroborated by Barry. “Give him an opponent as quickly as possible” means Romney. The GOP party establishment has used this gambit for years, getting behind their pick early with lots of money and endorsements (e.g., G.W. Bush in 2000) and now the Dims are openly playing the game also.
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