Your right about Iowa, but in only certain respects...
This is a perception/momentum game. For certain candidates, Iowa is inconsequential in many respects (Romney, Paul), unless of course they win it. For others a poor showing can cause considerable damage (Newt, Perry).
Our primaries are from January - June, 2012.
The Left Liberal Media is trying to set the stage for Newt to drop out. HA We have 6 months to nominate our candidate and June is a long ways away. And Newt will win in the majority of RED States. Why would Iowa or New Hampshire ever predict the Conservative choice when both states are liberal leaning?
No matter Newt's showing in Iowa or New Hampshire, Newt will continue to gain traction across the nation.
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You said a mouth full. For Perry a poor showing will likely be the end of his campaign, he has spent a lot money in Iowa and if he gets nothing to show for it the money will stop. Newt has a good war chest already built up so a loss here won't hurt so much. Bachman has several other areas where she is putting her time and resources so a loss or poor showing won't be her death nell but will really hurt. She should have really done well here.
Santorum has really put in the effort here and should show well. While some pollster may show Mitt Romney on top I find that hard to believe in this evangelical state. They don't care a lot for Mormons in Iowa and I think most voters will vote for anyone but Romney. Newt has so much baggage from the past that I don't think he will do well here which means that Paul and Santorum should carry the day. But I would sure like to see Bachmann do well.