Romney, Gingrich tie at 30% in latest WaPo/ABC National poll

Hotair ^ | 12/20/2011 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

Has the Republican primary fight become a two-man race, at least on a national level? A second national poll shows Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney tied, this time the WaPo/ABC poll, which shows them at 30% each:

Two weeks before Iowans cast the first votes of the 2012 election cycle, Republicans nationally are sharply divided over whom their party’s presidential nominee should be, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich locked in a dead-even race, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Gingrich and Romney are each favored by 30 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Running behind them is Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), whose libertarian philosophy has attracted a strong following. He stands at 15 percent, about double his tally in an early November poll. All other active candidates are in the single digits.

The rise of Ron Paul in this poll may have to do with the poll sample itself, which oversampled independents while undersampling Republicans. The sample has a D/R/I of 32/25/37, in which Democrats have a +7 over Republicans and independents a +12 over the GOP. In neither of the last two elections have independents outvoted Republicans in the exit polls. In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/32/29, and in 2010 — the Tea Party midterms — it was 35/35/29. The poll doesn’t break down the internals for support of each candidate, but the large oversample of independents are almost certainly the main contributing factor to Paul’s performance in this poll.

Regarding Romney and Gingrich, however, the WaPo poll seems to corroborate two other polls this week. Yesterday’s CNN poll showed Romney catching up with a still-rising Gingrich at 28%, and had Paul in third at 14%. Gallup also shows Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie, but calls this a “collapse,” as they had shown Gingrich far in front a couple of weeks ago:

After enjoying 14- to 15-percentage-point leads over Mitt Romney in early December, Newt Gingrich is now statistically tied with Romney in national Republican preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination: 26% for Gingrich vs. 24% for Romney. This follows a steady decline in support for Gingrich in the past 10 days.

Interestingly, Gallup’s tracking poll — which polls daily, much more often than WaPo or CNN — doesn’t show any significant change in Paul’s support. They have him at 11%, but two weeks ago he was at 10%. On a national basis, this has become a two-man race, but Gallup’s tracking poll shows a significant opening for another candidate to change that dynamic. The rise of both Romney and Gingrich in the other two polls make it look like that window is rapidly closing.

[Texas Eagle]

We better get a ton of Tea Partiers elected to Congress.

Just to be safe.

[sodpoodle]

ping

[Cincinatus' Wife]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

The latest from RCP national average.

Paul’s begun to slide.

Perry is trending up.

[Pollster1]

We better get a ton of Tea Partiers elected to Congress. Just to be safe.

You are exactly right.

We will vote on 435 Congressional seats and 33 in the Senate, and those are the races that matter. Obama has already demonstrated that he is the most dangerous threat to America's survival in our 200 year history. Romney is a milder socialist than Obama and doesn't hate America, but he desperately needs a patriotic Congress to restrain his collectivist tendencies. Newt is a small government conservative 90% of the time but needs a strong Congress to restrain him the other 10% of the time. I will be praying for America.

[Mechanicos]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2820699/posts?page=47#47

[chad_in_georgia]

No thanks on Perry.

[Perdogg]

Maybe the slide up from Santorum and Huntsman. The only trend I see is modest gains for Romney at the expense of the undecided.

[Perdogg]

sample size for my analysis?

[annieokie]

"""""We will vote on 435 Congressional seats and 33 in the Senate, and those are the races that matter""""

Issa is witholding the names of 4 congress members on the Countrywide issue. Wonder if any of them are up for re- election, if so WE NEED to know their names now.

[Pollster1]

Issa is witholding the names of 4 congress members on the Countrywide issue. Wonder if any of them are up for re- election, if so WE NEED to know their names now.

There is no higher priority than saving America from big government and socialism, and you are right, we need those names now to get good candidates into the race. We have to replace all the crooks, not only the 99% of democrats who are crooks but also the Beltway insiders who claim to be republicans but use big government to enrich themselves.

[sodpoodle]

If Newt is dropping it means several things:

The MSM has it’s knives working overtime.
People are paying attention.

Roller coasters are not all bad. All of the candidates n(except Romney) have ‘been there, done that’ continuing to move up and down.

When Newt heads upward again - it will show he has stamina, determination and effectiveness to refute all the malicious charges thrown his way.

[annieokie]

I had a thought after I posted that. Those 4 must all be DEMOCRATS or IND's, otherwise the MEDIA would have already exposed them if they were Republicans.

[Diogenesis]

INCONVENIENT FACTOID OF THE DAY:

Terrible, proven-bad Gov. Romney, in another of his “hit and runs”
managed to even raise taxes on New Hampshire residents
while Gov. of Massachusetts. Yes its true. ... and that is beyond RomneyCARE
== Believe it or not.

How Romney is that?

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[katiedidit1]

Does this mean Paul, Bachmann, the msm, NR and Fox will now start slamming Romney? or will he get a pass? O’Reilly said that Romney is a moderate and will carry independents, some democrats and of course republicans. He will govern to the right...LOL are you dizzy from the spin?

[sodpoodle]

HI Irish;)

OMG Fox is repeating ad nauseum the David Letterman showcase snippets of Romney displaying his ‘sense of humor’. Right - reading from a (lefty) script - he used the opportunity to smirk about Newt.

If Romney sincerely believes the MSM is pushing him as their Golden Boy - he truly is dumb.

I am also tired of the so-called educated pundits spinning Newt’s brainy and neglected exposure of the unrestrained POTUS, Congress and Judiciary. They may disagree with his opinion - but they cannot argue with his grasp of the issues.

[fightinJAG]

I haven’t been following it all that closely, but isn’t this the first time that Romney has hit 30%? Or one of the few times?

[fightinJAG]

We need to do this no matter who is elected President.

[Proudcongal]

They sampled “adults.” Means nothing. In other words, Gingrich is no doubt stomping Romney in LV numbers. The latest PPP poll of LV has Gingrich leading by 13 pts.

[Proudcongal]

They sampled “adults.” Means nothing. In other words, Gingrich is no doubt stomping Romney in LV numbers. The latest PPP poll of LV has Gingrich leading by 13 pts.

Sorry, it's the CNN poll that sampled adults. WaPo/ABC sampled RVs. Still not as telling as LV.