Posted on 12/15/2011 3:02:26 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The Gallup trendlines don’t lie. That’s Newt in brown and Romney in black:
Those are national numbers, not the numbers in all-important Iowa, but sneak a peek at the latest polls there in Pollster.com’s table. From the end of November through the first week of this month, Newt was above 30 percent in three separate surveys; in the three latest polls, he’s stuck between 20 and 22 percent, making the race a toss-up between him, Romney, and Ron Paul. If Perry gets a second look over the next two weeks, which seems increasingly likely, and some Iowans come home to the native Bachmann, then we’ve got a five-way jump ball on caucus day. Madness. What happens in New Hampshire if Iowa shakes out as, say, Paul 23, Gingrich 21, Perry 18, Romney 17, Bachmann 15? Is that the political equivalent of a “push” in gambling, leaving Romney the presumptive winner in NH, or does finishing fourth detonate the idea that he’s a lock to win in the northeast?
He’s not just tanking in Gallup, either. Here’s an interesting survey flagged by Sean Trende, who wonders whether Gingrich has a glass jaw:
It proceeded by dividing respondents into three groups. One of them, a control group, watched generic, non-political commercials.
A second group, the so-called “Gingrich condition,” watched a positive Gingrich ad, a negative ad about Gingrich, a positive Perry ad, and a negative ad about Perry (you can view the different ads here).
A third group, the “Romney condition,” watched a positive Romney ad, a negative Romney ad, a positive Perry ad, and a negative Perry ad.
In the control group, 42 percent of respondents made Gingrich their top choice in the GOP primary. But in the “Gingrich condition,” support for the former speaker was only 26 percent, a drop-off of 18 points. The winner in this scenario was Romney, who numbers ticked up substantially, even though viewers didn’t see any Mitt Romney ads.
Interestingly, in the “Romney condition,” where viewers saw ads about Romney and Perry, there was little effect on Romney’s support, and Gingrich’s support increased only marginally. This suggests that most of the negative information about Romney (and Perry) truly is “priced in” at this point.
Voters simply didn’t know the bad stuff about Newt yet, but thanks to Ron Paul’s attack ads, withering criticism from prominent conservatives, and media scrutiny of Newt’s old dirty laundry, they’re getting a crash course. That’s why he’s sinking — and more importantly, because of his organizational problems and decision to (mostly) avoid criticizing his opponents, he might not be able to reverse the trend. He’s not even exerting himself terrible in Iowa, in fact: He’s airing just one ad there right now and isn’t planning to begin his final barnstorming tour of the state until December 27. According to Nate Silver’s statistical model of Iowa polling, his odds of winning IA are down to 38 percent from 70 percent just a week ago; the pessimism’s even begun to show up in his InTrade numbers, which recently were cruising at around 35 percent and now are sagging at just 18. I’m not sure tonight’s debate will help him, either. Everyone knows by now that he’s good at them, which will blunt the impact of a strong performance, and meanwhile he’ll be taking shots from everyone onstage. (Except Huntsman, of course.) He’s still got seniors solidly behind him, which is a big deal, but if they start to abandon ship I don’t know how he survives. Time for some patented Romney Mediscare tactics, perhaps.
And if you don’t think things can get worse for him, here’s Ron Paul basically calling him a chickenhawk on Fox News today. Via GOP12:
If you complain enough about a guy, eventually his popularity will go down.
Almost seems like somebody’s playing chaos in the pre-race races.
Please, no Willard Romney surges.
Sorry guys this article will not accomplish its goal. Gingrich will win the rest of the “necessary” primaries.
Basically.
That and it also reflects the reality that there is no outstanding favourite at this point in time.
We’ll know better when Ron Paul drops out and where his support goes. (Hoping that he’ll drop out).
This guy is laying out the whole establishment strategy to influence the primary process. I think he may be getting a bit in front of himself, though.
I think "tanking" is not quite the right word.
First, his "tanking" is not correlating with anyone else's rise. The downturn happens before anyone else shows a rise, and it's a small rise at that.
Secondly, he hasn't crossed anyone else's line yet, and there is no evidence that the small upticks in the other polls are sustainable, and not just a "dead cat bounce."
This article is psyops.
-PJ
“If you complain enough about a guy, eventually his popularity will go down.”
Yep, they got what they wanted. 100 attacks later and his popularity goes down...what a shock!
He said there were parts of ObamaCare he wanted to keep and he has a new book about global warming coming, AFTER the election.
He is a warmist. He buys the hoax.
Like all the previous ‘front-runners’ in the Republican presidential nomination race, Newt Gingrich has received close scrutiny from both the leftmedia and the conservative right. He seems to annoy both camps, one way or another. The left portrays Newt as a wild-eyed conservative. The right as a pseudo-conservative who has spouted too many left-wing ideas to be credible as an authentic conservative. Both sides believe Gingrich could lose to the failed Obama. Of course, the left is happy about this (or claim to be) and the right is not. I think Newt’s lack of much personal charm, weak organization, low funds and the electorates weariness with career politicians will ultimately sink his candidacy. Of course, I could be wrong. I predicted that Sarah Palin would run. At this point, I really wish that she had.
In the end I predict a 3-way race because Ron Paul will never drop out. He'll just dance his way through the primaries, hurting Newt's chances and hoping to catch enough delegates in the proportional delegate states to be the kingmaker at the convention or to justify his 3rd party run. He's bad news for our side right now.
And where would he send his delegates if comes to that. I'm betting on Romney.
>>What happens in New Hampshire if Iowa shakes out as, say, Paul 23, Gingrich 21, Perry 18, Romney 17, Bachmann 15?
I would say Paul beating a fourth place Romney by 6 points in Iowa would hurt Romney bad in Newt Hampshire - thus giving him a much bigger problem than Gingrich coming in second by 2 points.
We need to keep complaining, more than ever.
Gingrich is corrupt. Gingrich is dangerous.
We need to throw everything at him -- sticks, stones, rotten tomatoes, bombs, missiles, flames -- until everyone is alerted to how corrupt he is.
We need to open the eyes of the kool-aid drinkers who support him only because "he seems smart in the debates."
Newt Gingrich is a snake-oil salesman salesman who is telling the useful idiots anything they want to hear. He is playing them. They are the people Lincoln referred to as the "some of the people, some of the time," who are being fooled by his slimy rhetoric.
Newt Gingrich is not on the side of the Tea Party. It's just the opposite. He stands for everything we are against. Just look at how the Gingrich supporters on FR bash and smear Sarah Palin and the Tea Party.
Tea Party members: We must stop Newt Gingrich and his corruption.
.
BWAAAAAAAAAA!
this!
Maybe now we can learn our lesson and support a Conservative candidate instead.
Newts fine by me.
***Just look at how the Gingrich supporters on FR bash and smear Sarah Palin and the Tea Party.***
You realize you are slandering the owner of this site?
Better check out his posts before you make such utter delusional charges. Many of Sarah’s supporters have moved to Newt.
Plus, Newt’s debate skills have helped elevate the other candidates. Even while under brutal attacks, he has set an example of dignity and comity.
ping
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