It is, sadly, very possible that Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus because of Dems re-registering as Republicans on caucus night to vote for him. However, there is no chance that he will get the nomination. Conservatives may split among several candidates, leaving Paul-Romney (or Romney-Paul) in first and second place.
If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, does he become the inevitable nominee? I don’t think so. Both Bachmann and Santorum have bet everything on Iowa and will likely be forced out without a win there. I do not see Perry as a credible candidate, although others may disagree. Gingrich may well survive as the conservative alternative to Romney in SC and FL. Newt is almost certainly the only one who can stop Romney. Romney sees this also, which is why he and his people are gunning so hard against Newt.
I sure hope you’re right, Iowa, about a 1-2 of Iowa/NH not being the ballgame for Romney.
I place a lot of weight on the media’s ability to shape the sheeple.
They will crown him, and then promote him through the remainder of the primaries until it’s sewn up.
Then they’ll begin the attack on his Mormonism, his bankrupting companies, his flip-flopping, and his RomneyCare versus Zero’s ObamaCare.
I agree. And I don't see Romney winning SC or FL.The problem is that because of RNC rules the delegates will get split for all of the primaries held before April. After that it is winner take all.
I'm hoping some clever Freeper will do an analysis of the likely impact of this on the Romney vs. Newt delegate count. Knowing nothing else it would seem to favor Romney and that may have been part of the intent of the RNC. Split the early southern delegates and let the liberal state delegates go to Romeny.
As I said: Interesting times we live in. Keep the faith.