Posted on 12/14/2011 12:19:04 PM PST by neverdem
Obama's re-election team on Tuesday unveiled five potential paths for the president to win in 2012. They can be summarized as follows:
(1) West Path: The Kerry states, plus Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada (272 electoral votes).
(2) Florida Path: The Kerry states, plus Florida (275 EVs).
(3) South Path: The Kerry states, plus North Carolina and Virginia (274 EVs).
(4) Midwest Path: The Kerry states, plus Ohio and Iowa (270 EVs).
(5) "Expansion Path": The Kerry states, minus Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, plus Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona (272 EVs).
While it may sound re-assuring to the president’s supporters to hear that he has multiple paths to re-election, the truth is that all of these routes are awfully tenuous. Viewing them in light of his job approval ratings, one probably has to conclude that he remains a slight underdog.
Let’s look at the following chart. It shows a rough average of the president’s job approval numbers in key swing states in recent polls, which is one of the strongest predictors of how a president ultimately performs:
Obviously, how these ratings translate into actual votes is dependent upon the GOP nominee. If Romney gets the nod, the president will have an extremely tough time winning New Hampshire, while Romney’s somewhat patrician demeanor may not play well in blue-collar Pennsylvania. At the same time, Team Obama could probably make Rick Perry radioactive in New Hampshire and pull out the win, while seeing Perry run better in the Mountain West and connecting with those blue-collar Pennsylvanians.
Setting aside candidate-specifics, we can make some broad generalizations about the president’s path. Right now, the president is looking like an okay bet to hold the Bush ’04 state of New Mexico, and is also performing well in Wisconsin.
After that, however, all of the paths become problematic...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
What about the “send Joe Biden on the road to win the Doofus vote” strategy?
Obama's latest ploy seems to be to manufacture a "government shutdown" which the media will blame on the Republicans. It worked for Clinton...it could work again...people have short memories.
The Republican candidates will spend the next several months attacking one another so that the winner will have a hard time uniting the party or winning over independent voters. If Trump or Ron Paul decides to run as an independent, it will make it much easier for Obama to get the electoral votes he needs.
Yeah; have Holder's "Justice Department" prosecute them? LOL
They are the same type of operation as the ACLU, forwarding the "Progressive Agenda", ON TAXPAYER FUNDING.
We have lawyers going to Judges (former lawyers), and they WILL NOT RULE against their buddies....that's the way it is.
The only way for him to be beaten is to CHANGE the popular impression of him, and the only way to do that is by relentless, unceasing attacks.
This, the GOP is probably not willing to do.
"Anyone But Obama" is the lesson, here.
Mayor Bloomberg slams Craigslist over shady gun sales
A third party run by Bloomturd is just as likely, if not more so. He would take votes from the left.
Battleground-State Voters Leaving the Democratic Party
I wouldn't be so pessimistic. There were a number of stories that Obama's campaign will basically ignore working class whites. In 2010, the GOP got sixty percent of the white vote.That never happened before. He's alienated a huge chunk of Jacksonian Democrats with his policies about fracking, coal and oil. He's a fool in foreign policcy. See comment# 26. Blooberg may go third party. He only takes votes from the left.
IMHO, Holder and his top lieutenants get impeached next year for Fast and Furious, etc.
40% hardcore support + brilliant intellectual Progressive support + really really brilliant Independent support + those who vote early and often = President Obama in 2013, 55% to 45%. (”Landslide” with Progressive celebration.)
IMHO
I don’t think Obama can take PA this time, he did win last time, and I admit blowing it, saying he would lose, but I did not anticipate how many people would stay home. Had voting levels across the state been the same as they had been in 2004, McCain would have won the state.
What that tells me is that 2008 was a protest against BUSH, and a boring Republican Nominee, not an endorcement of Obama, at least in PA. Since then, the state has voted in a Republican Governor, and both houses are Republican... The Marcellous Shale has provided decent jobs so PA isn’t being hit as bad as other parts of the country with jobs, but it still ain’t pretty.
Obama’s hope and change has been shown to be smoke and mirrors, and I don’t think you are going to see PA voters stay home, or show up and vote for Romper Room. You also don’t have a corrupt democrat governor out shilling for him this time either.
I think Obama winning PA would be a major upset this year, but of course that depends on the candidate the R’s put up. I think both Newt and Romney will be able to fair well here, anyone else, no way.. Santorum?? Forget it about it you can write PA off if he is the nominee.
Sorry, but I heartily disagree, this election is the republicans to lose IMHO.
The only way the republicans lose is if they put up a 2nd or 3rd string nominee.
Fortunately it looks like the risk of that happening are fading.. so provided the Republican nominee doesn’t shoot himself in the foot during hte election its their’s to lose.
Was there fraud in the 08 election? Of course, but that didn’t elect Obama.. .voter Apathy did. 08 was a repudiation of Bush, more than a endorcement of Obama, in 12, Obama must run as Obama, he’ll certainly try not to run on his record, since it has sucked donkey scrotum, but that’s what he is.. and on that, he will be soundly repudiated.
Actually, its the GOP insiders who are trying to appoint ROMNEY. The corrupt dc insiders have been push Romney for the last four years. They tear down everyone who crosses his path.
The Tea party is rejecting the insider GOP A Holes ... and choosing someone else.
All of this is assuming a simple two-man race, and Obama’s handlers have no intention of leaving him at that.
Trump’s already making noises about running as an Americans Elect third-party candidate. His sudden turn right and the creation of that online candidate registration vehicle are undoubtedly two pieces of the Obama reelection strategy.
Trump’s already making noises about running as an Americans Elect third-party candidate. His sudden turn right and the creation of that online candidate registration vehicle are undoubtedly two pieces of the Obama reelection strategy.
Mayor Bloomberg slams Craigslist over shady gun sales
Don't be surprised with a run by Bloomie. He won't take votes from the right. Check comment# 27 and its link too. Even with significant 3rd and 4th party nominees, I'll be surprised if the GOP nominee gets less than sixty percent of the white vote.
Bloomie wouldn’t take votes from Romney, but he sure would from Gingrich. Though he’s always sniffing for a run, I don’t think he’ll actually take the leap.
Bloomie is so pro-abortion he required city hospitals that have ob/gyn residencies to teach surgical abortions. He's a gun grabber par excellence. He's pro gay marriage. Gingrich can boast of balanced budgets. How does Bloomie take votes from Gingrich besides from the brain dead?
Correct. Either McNewt or McRomney would spell disaster.
Because we’re talking about the general election, where ‘sophisticated’, ‘moderate’, ‘economic’, Republicans and independents either don’t so much care about or even agree with him on those issues.
But the Gingrich bombast and baggage will be too much for many of such voters to take.
But the Gingrich bombast and baggage will be too much for many of such voters to take.
Not with any sentient beings who have had enough of Obama's disastrous term. This is a referendum on Obama. These on the right and leaning right will hold their noses. It will be anybody but Obama in the general. Almost three out of five independents don't approve of Obama's performance.
IMO Newt is the kind of high risk candidate who could implode and receive only 30-something percent of the vote, particularly given a ‘reasonable’ non-Obama alternative.
I doubt Obama gets close to 50% of the vote himself, but it’s that third-party GOP alternative that they’re counting on.
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