Now, let's think about that for a second. It is inarguable that in 1997, car phones (as we used to call them), while not rare, certainly were not around in the numbers we see today (even though we simply call them cell phones now). So let's agree that cell phone use (while driving) has increased as cell phones have become nearly ubiquitous among drivers. While not in the hands of every driver, we can be utterly certain there are exponentially more cell phones now than 15 years ago.
Since there are more cell phones in driver's hands, and they're so amazingly dangerous, why haven't accidents gone up? And this is using the RAW accident totals, not driver-mile rates. The 5.5 million accidents in 2009 would represent a much greater reduction when accounting for the increased number of drivers and miles driven.
So again, I ask, if cell phones are so elementarily causing accidents, why haven't there been more accidents as these devices have become common-place in the driver's hands?
The answer is simple. They really don't cause more accidents.
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“So again, I ask, if cell phones are so elementarily causing accidents, why haven’t there been more accidents as these devices have become common-place in the driver’s hands?
The answer is simple. They really don’t cause more accidents. “
Despite pulling up some statistics, you have no idea how to interpret them. Many things cause accidents, and you have not discussed trends in known accident causes which contributed to the reduction (clearly something is happening less). Secondly, cell-phone usage is often unreported or unreliably reported, especially in earlier years of your statistical ‘evidence.’
Just because all factors in accidents have been reduced over a decade doesn’t mean some factors aren’t more prevalent than they were, especially considering how much cell usage has grown in the last decade.
More generally, anyone who has observed the erratic driving from cell usage in person could tell you that that behavior absolutely reduces reaction times and can only contribute to increasing, not reducing, accidents. To argue otherwise is laughable on the face of it, but I do understand that many people do just that. I wonder how many of them drive while talking on cells regularly.
It's an interesting observation and argument. However it raises my curiosity about what has happened to the number of drivers and miles driven across those years. While I would imagine that simple population growth is enough to propel the number of drivers upward, I'm wondering about the effect of skyrocketing gas prices on miles driven per driver. I'll have to look around for some stats on that.