“So again, I ask, if cell phones are so elementarily causing accidents, why haven’t there been more accidents as these devices have become common-place in the driver’s hands?
The answer is simple. They really don’t cause more accidents. “
Despite pulling up some statistics, you have no idea how to interpret them. Many things cause accidents, and you have not discussed trends in known accident causes which contributed to the reduction (clearly something is happening less). Secondly, cell-phone usage is often unreported or unreliably reported, especially in earlier years of your statistical ‘evidence.’
Just because all factors in accidents have been reduced over a decade doesn’t mean some factors aren’t more prevalent than they were, especially considering how much cell usage has grown in the last decade.
More generally, anyone who has observed the erratic driving from cell usage in person could tell you that that behavior absolutely reduces reaction times and can only contribute to increasing, not reducing, accidents. To argue otherwise is laughable on the face of it, but I do understand that many people do just that. I wonder how many of them drive while talking on cells regularly.
The broad trend of a declining amount of traffic accidents, when observed against the explosion of in-car cell phone use is fundamentally interpretable as breaking any causation linkage between the two.
Secondly, cell-phone usage is often unreported or unreliably reported, especially in earlier years of your statistical ‘evidence.’
The reporting of cell phone in early years is irrelevant. The statistics of declining accident rates while compared with the dramatically increased amount of cell phone use belies the anecdotal, observed evidence people seem wont to retell. In 1997, cell phone use was unarguably a fraction of the use occurring today. Yet, people are oh so quick to decry their use while driving as some sort of obvious hazard.
Just because all factors in accidents have been reduced over a decade doesn’t mean some factors aren’t more prevalent than they were, especially considering how much cell usage has grown in the last decade.
It seems you are making my point. The universal totals of reported accidents in the face of massively increased cell phone use (in-car) is all anyone needs to observe to compare the relationship between the two. I can't help but equate this to the topic of global warming. It seems as though you could make your argument that, despite decreasing temperatures since 1998, they'd have decreased even more so had carbon emissions been kept in check. I am certainly of the opinion that even though CO2 emissions are still increasing, our temperatures have not seen increases (and even declined) over the past 12+ years, thus providing prima facie evidence that C02 is not a determining factor. I am stating there is the same causal relationship for cell phone use and accidents.
More generally, anyone who has observed the erratic driving from cell usage in person could tell you that that behavior absolutely reduces reaction times and can only contribute to increasing, not reducing, accidents. To argue otherwise is laughable on the face of it, but I do understand that many people do just that. I wonder how many of them drive while talking on cells regularly.
While everyone has observed poor driving - I just don't make the immediate link that cell phone use is the cause. Indeed, you're not reporting how many people are driving along just fine while also on a phone.
Here's an idea: What should be policed is the poor driving.