I’m one historian who does not believe Yamamoto’s raid could have knocked the US out of the war, even if the carriers HAD been in port.
1. Yamamoto could only expect 3 carriers to be in the Pacific anyway: Lexington (CV-2), USS Enterprise (CV-6) and Saratoga (CV-3). The Wasp, Hornet, and Yorktown were still with the Atlantic fleet. Furthermore if the Japanese intelligence network was anything near as accurate as it supposedly was, Yamamoto should have known that Saratoga had just finished her overhaul at Bremerton and wasn’t due to return to Pearl Harbor until Dec. 10th or later. So the Admiral could have only hoped for 2, possibly 3 if Saratoga was ahead of schedule, carriers to be at Pearl when he launched his attack.
2. Even after extensive damage at the Battle of the Coral Sea, Yorktown was repaired in less than a month and available for the Battle of Midway. Given that several capital ships, heavily damaged at Pearl, returned to action within the year, it is not inconceivable that at least 1 Pacific fleet carrier could have survived Pearl Harbor and returned to service by June 1942 (Battle of Midway)
3.American shipbuilders moved so quickly to rebuild the Pacific fleet that even had we lost Coral Sea and Midway, we still would have come roaring back. Replacements for the Lexington and Yorktown were already in shipyards at the time of their sinking.
Just read a book, “Midway” Here’s a number for you... The japs were producing 160 planes a month at in Dec 41, after years of gearing up for war. In 1943 we produced 10,000 planes!!!!.... EVERY MONTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
An interesting analysis on American vs Japanese warmaking abilities can be found here...
http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
On a related note some years ago there was an article in Wings/Airpower regards aircraft production. Grumman aircraft all by itself almost outproduced the entire Japanese airecraft industry.
The Comined fleet website is pretty interesting if you are not familiar with it.
Regards
alfa6 ;>}
This historian agrees with you. I also believe that Yamamoto would as well. I don’t think he truly felt he was in a winnable situation and only tried to apply the best strategy he could muster with the demands that were placed upon him.
Even if, as you said, all the Pacific carriers had been in port and sunk that day it would not have knocked the U.S. out of the war. It would have enraged the public just as soundly as the sinking of the battleships did. Even staunch isolationist Senator Wheeler (D - MT) suddenly changed his tune and called for the single minded goal of of defeating Japan. If the carriers had been sunk it only would have delayed the inevitable.