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I was surprised when Gingrich got on stage and argued for big government solutions to the environment in a lovefest with John Kerry.

I was surprised when he had his recorded couch affair commercial with Nancy Pelosi.

I was surprised at the level of collaboration he engaged in with Hillary Clinton.

I was surprised that he has supported individual mandate at least from 1993 to this very day (of course it must be phased in he says).

I was surprised to see that he was willing to pony up to the amnesty table in a big way for felons as long as they have been here for 25 years or so committing their felonies.

I am constantly surprised at the extremely mixed bag of positions that Newt Gingrich holds. I think he is a fine and honorable patriotic American but a consistent, dependable constitutional conservative he is not and never has been. He seeks too many “special cases” when his compassion dictates that it is important enough.

It looks to me as about 60% of the candidates overall position is being garnered from the debates. 25% based on past accomplishments and 15% adjustment factor for anything seen as negative in the past. When you win all the debates, you’ve basically locked up the nomination unless you fall off the horse.

Unfortunately, the issue is one of perception among Republican voters. Irrespective of his at best inconsistent actual record, Gingrich is generally perceived as a conservative.

Romney is a 2010s version of a Northeastern Republican of the Nelson Rockefeller - William Scranton - Thomas Dewey - Lowell Weicker mold. (His father opposed Barry Goldwater and competed against Richard Nixon as a liberal Republican in 1968.) The "checked pants" Republicans represent 20-25% of the party's electorate at best. Romney's Mormonism may give him a few extra points in Utah and neighboring states.

Paul is the champion of libertarianism, at least the "paleo" group centered around Lew Rockwell. His philosophical lineage derives largely from Ludwig von Mises, the free market economist of the Austrian school, and his disciple, Murray Rothbard. Paul is close to the Old Right of Robert Taft, Howard Buffett, and (to a degree) Barry Goldwater. But Paul is not conservative in the current sense. His numbers are generally in the 5-10% range.

65-75% of Republicans are conservative in the modern sense of the word. Neither Romney nor Paul appeal to them. They may reluctantly vote for Romney should he win the nomination. Gingrich may be lucky that all the other conservatives flamed out, enabling him to rise to the top before Iowa and New Hampshire.