. With Rasmussen added
Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus other recent national polls). I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.
Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls
listed at RCP [as of Dec 1st]
plus
YouGov 11/22, 11/15, 11/8, 11/1, 10/25, 10/18 and 10/11 polls, and
Poll Position 11/27 11/22 11/8, and 11/1 polls inserted chronologically
I also broke the 11/9 - 11/14 Pew poll into two, (3-day) polls
(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)
As usual, Real Clear Politics (of Chicago) may be showing its bias again towards Romney. Their former policy was they would scrub national poll data OUT of their averages after all of that data was more than 14 days old. BUT, when it has favored Romney's averages, they would keep old data which was entirely older than 24 days. Also, one week ago, they scrubbed out old data that was just barely older than 12 days, (instead of 14) and by doing that it boosted Romney's average a bit more. Here is what they show right now as their averages...
Poll Date Gingrh. Romney Cain Perry Paul Bachmn. Santor. Huntsm. Spread
RCP Average 11/13 - 11/30 26.6 20.4 14 7.2 8 4.6 2.6 2.4 Gingrich +6.2
...If they used their normal standard, and scrubbed all data that was entirely older than 14 days,
they would have to report these averages today...
Poll Date Gingrh. Romney Cain Perry Paul Bachmn. Santor. Huntsm. Spread
RCP w/14day Average 11/16 - 11/30 27.5 20.0 13.8 7.3 8.0 4.3 2.8 2.3 Gingrich +7.5
...IF they used the same journalistic 'standard' as one week ago (when scrubbing all data that was older than 12 days),
they would have to report these averages today...
Poll Date Gingrh. Romney Cain Perry Paul Bachmn. Santor. Huntsm. Spread
RCP w/12day Average 11/18 - 11/30 29.3 19.7 13.0 7.0 7.7 4.3 3.3 2.7 Gingrich +9.7
...I suspect they often TRY to show ROMNEY's averages more favorably with little 'tricks'.
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