“Given the candidates, the state of the GOP, the take my ball and go home attitude if my guy doesn’t get the nod, I am predicting here and now an Obama victory in the range of 274-290 EVs. The GOP keeps the House but loses a third of the Tea Party freshmen, and they get to 49 in the Senate.”
The wild card is the independents. Most of the moderate/independents I know are talking about staying home. If they are motivated to break one way or the other, that would be a deciding factor.
I can’t imagine what would motivate them, I think they’ll stay home in large numbers, and your prediction will come to pass.
Interesting take. I suspect Mitt Romney would do far better among independents than most people realize. He’s exactly what many independents really look for in a candidate: a fart in the wind who can take any position from one end of the political spectrum to the other on most issues, depending on which way the wind blows.