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Posted on 11/17/2011 6:39:21 PM PST by SeekAndFind
He was a distant fourth in Rasmussen’s poll of likely voters this morning, but there’s no way the “Paul surge!” meme is going to die that easily. New fuel for the fire today from Iowa State: A poll of almost 1,000 Iowa registered Republicans has him just above 20 percent, four points better than Romney and just four points back of a guy whose own supporters have taken to dumping him as unelectable on national TV. As Cain fades a bit, Newt starts to come on strong, and Perry gets his second wind, there’s at least a chance here of a five-way split that would let Paul squeak to victory with, say, 25 percent. Look out, fiat money!
Is the rEVOLution coming to Des Moines? WaPo’s Chris Cillizza is bullish:
The most obvious reason is that Paul has been on television in the state since July and has spent more than $1.35 million on ads. (For months, Paul had the airwaves to himself although Texas Gov. Rick Perry is now on television in Iowa as well.)…
And, it’s not just Paul’s television ads that have blanketed the state. Sixty seven percent of those tested in the Bloomberg poll said they had been contacted by the Paul campaign via email, direct mail, telephone or someone coming directly to their door over the last year — the highest percentage for any candidate. (Just 47 percent said the same of Perry, 46 percent of Romney and 41 percent of Cain.)…
“Turnout will probably be lower than in 2008 because there are not the kind of hyper-developed ground efforts like we saw in 2008, 2000, or 1996,” said Gentry Collins, a former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa. “I think that benefits a candidate like Paul because the depth of his appeal will guarantee him a minimum number.”…
“[Paul] will benefit more than other candidates from our registration rules as independents, Libertarians [and] Democrats can effectively become Republicans for a night and caucus for Paul,” said one veteran Iowa Republican operative. “Anecdotally, I have encountered more than a few self-described liberals who will caucus for Paul due to his anti-war stance.”
Caucusing for Paul as a liberal would be exceedingly stupid, and not just because his ideology is the most antithetical to the welfare state of any candidate in the field. Like I said yesterday, a Paul win in Iowa would greatly raise the chances of Romney being nominated — and Romney is, for better or worse, The One’s toughest opponent head to head. A smart, cynical, calculating liberal would organize an “Operation Chaos” on behalf of Perry, whose favorables have turned toxic but who could still, probably, win the nomination on a wave of Not Romney enthusiasm if he takes Iowa. He’d be easier pickings for Obama in the general, especially if he goes crosseyed again at one of the debates.
Via Cillizza, here’s one of the spots airing in Iowa. Can’t wait for the Ron Paul foreign policy ad. Exit question: Is the Republican field really going to be out-organized and out-hustled in corn country by a libertarian outsider? What’s the point of being establishment if the establishment can be outmaneuvered like that?
oooo... Ron Paul winning polls... shock.. what’s next, spamming website comments?
This guy is one crazy bastard!
The only poll Wrong Paul could ever win is a poll that included the question: “Whose supporters spam the most polls?”
Oh, MY! Yet another poll not worth the bandwidth!
Well, the “GOP” establishment knifed Sarah Palin and all other decent conservatives in the back, and is pushing a socialist statist on us, with Newt (Pelosi’s Bitch) as a first alternate.
So, yeah Ron Paul, we’re going to take a serious look at him, because we would kind of like an ALTERNATIVE to Obama liberalism.
And if the establishment doesn’t like it, they can go you-know-where. Until they stop pushing Romney, this is what we are down to.
After watching hours of mindless drool called the OWS march, I can with 100% certainty say that a segment of Paul’s support may be coming from anarchists.
If Ron Paul wins the nomination, which I doubt, then he will get my vote. ANYBODY BUT OMAMA.
I’m not supporting Mr. Paul, of course, but if he should somehow get the nomination, I will be supporting him. I would really have to hold my nose to vote for Romney or Newt, but not so much for Ron Paul.
I don’t believe anything that the media says. Unfortunately, most Americans do.
Atleast Dr. Paul is pro-life !
Wait-—Who’s Ron Paul again ?
LOL!
“Sixty seven percent of those tested in the Bloomberg poll said they had been contacted by the Paul campaign via email, direct mail, telephone or someone coming directly to their door over the last year — the highest percentage for any candidate. (Just 47 percent said the same of Perry, 46 percent of Romney and 41 percent of Cain.)…”
WOW! This means Screwy Lewy Rockwell and the rest of he Paulestinians are working OT to spread RuPaul’s message of hope, peace, and Shariah Law, right ?
Er, no.
“A researcher at SecureWorks has traced the October flood of deceptive spam promoting Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul to a criminal botnet of compromised computers run out of Ukraine, which was rented for the three-day job.
‘While the total count of Ron Paul spam messages that actually landed in peoples’ inboxes can’t be known, it certainly was received by millions of recipients,’ writes security researcher Joe Stewart, in a SecureWorks report. ‘All this was done using around 3,000 bots.’
There were 162,211,647 e-mail addresses targeted, Stewart writes, though many were likely bad or outdated.
Stewart’s detective work identified the botnet as part of a criminal operation in Eastern Europe called Reactor Mailer that offers spammers a convenient web interface to manage their illegal campaigns. The Ron Paul spam was managed by a spammer-for-hire who goes by the handle ‘nenastnyj.’ “
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2007/12/ron-paul-promot/
RuPaul’s Merry Band of Potheads, Truthers , and OWS Fleabaggers are about as organic as the plastic that resides on Nazi Pelosi’s face. They only exist in online polls, not voting booths. RuPaul has never gained as much as 1% of the popular vote in his entire political career, which stretches back to the original Boston Tea Party, which he referred to as a “violent show of force”. (Hey, if the Paulatrds can make it up as they go along, so can I.)
Ron Paul has actual people on the ground helping him. Doing Voter ID. Things like that.
I’m not sure about this poll, however.
A lot just depends on how many 18-29 they talk to.
Ron Paul wins 18-29 with numbers like 30%, 40% or more.
Ron Paul does badly with 65+%, often below 5%.
Old people don’t care about debt. They just want the Federal Government to stay big, to keep borrowing money and spending money.
Young people, Ron Paul supporters, are the ones who are being hurt the most by the unnecessary Federal Government Spending, and Ron Paul is the only candidate serious about making cuts, so they support him.
Pretty simple.
The reason the polls vary from 10% to 20% for Ron Paul in Iowa is that pollsters don’t agree on how many kids are going to vote. They usually don’t vote in the Iowa Caucus and if they do, it’s usually for the Democrat.
Pollsters know that Ron Paul will draw a lot of kids, much more than usual, but sometimes they’re unwilling to move their assumptions away from what’s typical.
When they talk to a lot of kids, Ron Paul gets his higher numbers, like 20%. When they don’t, Ron Paul gets numbers like 10%.
Men typically support Ron Paul more than women. Women want the Federal Government to protect them, where Men are more self-reliant.
The Bloomberg poll with Ron Paul at 19% in Iowa talked to 60% Men, 40% Women.
Whoever is in first at whatever particular time is usually whoever the liberal media wants Republicans to vote for at any particular time. Right now the Liberal media is talking about Newt, and Newt is going up in the polls.
People will be reminded about all the terrible things about Newt, and he will be headed downward by the Iowa Caucus, if not long before.
I don’t think that there’s another candidate that is acceptable to them that they can prop up when Newt crashes and burns.
Santorum? Roemer?
Ron Paul hasn’t seen any surge. Ron Paul would get a surge if he won Iowa.
What the author said regarding Perry is certainly correct. Only Democrats would be supporting Perry at this point.
Ummm....no.
RuPaul supports the use of RU-486, also known as the abortion pill.
If you’re interested if there are actual people involved in the Ron Paul Campaign, you can check out any of the popular Ron Paul websites. ronpaulforums.com dailypaul.com
They’re constantly talking about things like phone from home, which is how thousands of people from all over the country are calling Iowa and New Hampshire.
Since the other campaigns don’t have actual people who actually like them, they don’t have these programs.
I should add that Romney does have some support.
But the other candidates, it’s funny, they’d be at 4%, then 30%, then 4% again. They’re only popular when the TV is talking about them, and whent the TV stops, their numbers fall.
What is Adultery 3 Wife Gingrich’s position on ru486?
I WAS a Ron Paul supporter. I know all of their tricks and plots. I’m familiar withe Daily Paul, Lew Rockwell.com, etc, etc. They’re masters at making themselves look bigger than they actually are.
Now, am I going to say that they don’t exist ? Of course not. RuPaul certainly has a hardcore following and a select few are not idiots. (In Literalville, we call them “FReepers”.)
No, actually, you’re wrong.
There are a ton of actual people there.
And they are participating in the phone from home program, and they are reaching most of the Iowa voters.
No other candidates are popular enough for long enough to do much of anything.
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