Posted on 11/12/2011 9:09:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
It might be time to stop laughing at Herman Cain.
His presidential campaign, once considered a vanity project designed to sell copies of his new book, continues to chug along the tracks, refusing to be derailed by scandal or the lack of a well-organized staff.
Cain has a lead in a handful of national polls over the heavily favored Mitt Romney — and some political observers believe a once-unthinkable path to the Republican nomination could emerge for the charismatic former pizza CEO.
“No one believed he’d get as far as he has and yet he’s still in this thing,” said Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, Cain’s home state. “A lot of voters see him as being authentic and a straight-talker,” added Bullock. “He’s not a politician, and that’s a strength right now.”
Cain’s engaging personality and catchy 9-9-9 flat tax plan have overshadowed his lack of experience on matters like foreign policy — and his surprising rise has been aided by his opponents’ weaknesses, pundits noted.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s already-legendary debate gaffe last week was just the latest in a series of self-inflicted wounds, while Romney remains unloved by much of the GOP’s conservative wing.
“Cain’s surge is partially due to the desires of conservatives and the Tea Party to find an alternative to Romney,” said Prof. Alan Abramowitz from Emory University in Atlanta. “Is it about Cain or is it that he’s not Romney?”
The route to a Cain nomination, no matter how unlikely, starts in one of two early battlegrounds: Iowa or South Carolina, politicos agreed.
“Both states are home to a lot of Evangelicals and social conservatives and while there are a lot of candidates vying for those votes, Cain is currently winning,” said Prof. Tim Hagle at the University of Iowa.
Because Cain is not expected to do well in Romney-loving New Hampshire, which sits between Iowa and South Carolina on the campaign calendar, he needs to finish strong in the Hawkeye State before winning down South, experts said.
An AARP-financed poll released Friday shows Cain ahead of Romney 25% to 22% in Iowa and 28% to 27% in South Carolina. Cain is running a close second in the next key state, Florida.
But pundits pointed out there’s a difference between polling well and actually winning votes — and insisted that Cain needs to invest in a more traditional ground game.
“He’s not mapping out a conventional strategy, he’s not setting up campaign staffs in the early primary states, and he himself isn’t even spending much time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina,” said Robert Jackson, political science professor at Florida State University.
“He’s getting a lot of free advertising through the media now, but he’s going to have to spend real money to stay in the race,” added Abramowitz.
Cain is raking in the bucks, having raised $9 million since Oct. 1 — more than three times what he collected the entire summer.
But there are signs that the recent spate of sexual harassment claims against Cain are taking their toll. His poll numbers have begun to slip in Iowa and some pundits suspect he has already peaked.
“The conservatives first had a flirtation with [Michele\] Bachmann, then Perry, and now Cain,” said Abramowitz. “Maybe Newt Gingrich is next.”
The highest Michele Bachmann avg. was 13%. At that time Romney was at 23%. Bachmann has never led.
She was leading in Iowa right after Mike Huckabee, wasn’t it? LOL
Lotta drunk grumpy journalistas tonight, LOL...they thought they’d be celebrating his destruction, but he’s beating them. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!!!...
I’m waiting for them to pull out the homosexual or criminal card.
Michele won the Iowa straw poll on 8/13 and was at 10/2% avg on that day. She was on her way down at that point and has dropped more since. She is currently at 3.7%.
lol!
“once considered”
“pundits noted.”
“politicos agreed.”
“experts said.”
“But pundits pointed out”
“said Robert Jackson”
“added Abramowitz.”
And although “some political observers believe”, it seems that not even “some” had something to “say”.
The Howard University Chamber Choir's rendition of "Deep River" is an amazing piece of work.
Sometimes I listen to Christian music while reading these posts. The reasons should be obvious...
I’m having a hard time tracing this business about saving a pretzel for the gas jets to what Perry supposedly intended to say. Maybe the drawl centers of my brain just aren’t working right in reverse. What was it Perry tried to say?
Interesting. Would like to see who they polled.
Well looks quite possible Cain will cross over to campground all right... not campground in like what the #Occupiers occupy, but in the heart of Washington DC.
That is my prayer.
There are a lot of Cain supporters who don't do polls.
1. Get rid of Obama
2. Avoid RINOS (Romney, Gingrich, Huntsman)
3. Avoid lunatics (sorry Paul)
4. Select a tru-con (Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry)
5. Avoid media selecting candidates (like they are attempting to remove Cain, Bachmann, and Perry)
Fight for fairness. The contrived bimbo eruption attacking Herman Cain, the marginalizing of Rick, Rick and Bachmann.
Let the voters decide. My preference today: (1) Cain, (2) Bachmann, (3) Rick Santorum, and (4) Rick Perry.
This could all change with a brokered convention and drafting of Gov. Sarah Palin.
Cain’s bimbo ‘scandal’ seems to have dissipated. The damage it seems to have done is pull Cain down from having a clear lead to being roughly tied for the lead, at least in national polls.
The people organizing these attacks probably figure that Cain will continue to drop...but they have no clue how committed his supporters are. They will be very surprised as Cain goes back to the lead, simply by being Cain and drawing people back to him. It will be fun to watch.
LOL, in reality, it’s about nothing more than just some bad lip reading.
Fine, but what the dickens was he saying
It would be good to find out one day. Otherwise, I have absolutely no idea.
Meaning, they don’t tend to answer polls, I take it.
Response bias is a very difficult thing to overcome. Hypothetical mind readers would be able to pin down a population the size of America’s to within about one percent, with surprisingly few samples (only a thousand or so) if I remember my political science correctly. Gallup used to conduct polls that took extreme pains to exclude bias. The results were accurate, but chasing down all the samples took weeks. This isn’t helpful for getting a picture of opinion that changes with each news cycle.
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