Posted on 10/11/2011 3:18:34 PM PDT by Kaslin
Greetings from the picturesque campus of the Ivy League's Dartmouth College, the site of tonight's Republican presidential tilt. The Tipsheet will have live coverage of the event, which kicks off at 8:00 pm ET and airs on Bloomberg television (time to break out the TV guide, I suspect). Before you read my take on what to watch for tonight, check out the latest poll from Gallup, which puts the three top-tier candidates within five points of eachother.
Storylines
(1) Iran: Although the debate is supposed to focus almost exclusively on economic issues, today's breaking news bombshell that the Iranian government has been caught financing and coordinating terrorist attacks against targets inside the United States should absolutely be addressed. The candidate with the most granular understanding of the issues at play on this subject is Rick Santorum. I'm eager to hear what he, and all of his rivals, have to say. (Except for Ron Paul, who doesn't think Iranian nuclear aggression is a biggie, and who will find some way to blame us for Iran's poisonous treachery). Another wrinkle: Could Eric Holder's involvement in this story provide an opening for someone to finally raise Solyndra and/or Fast & Furious in one of these debates?
(2) Chris Christie's endorsement of Mitt Romney will likely get some play. Will Rick Perry -- or someone else -- pull the Northeastern RINO card? A Perry spokesman has already come pretty close.
(3) Mormonism: Rick Perry was recently introduced at an event by a pastor who has called Mormonism a "cult." Today, Mitt Romney demanded that Perry repudiate this view, arguing that the Consitution forbids a religious test for the presidency, and that anti-Mormon bigotry is ugly and has no place in American politics. A Perry spokesman has already declined to acede Romney's request, calling the issue a "distraction." I'll be stunned if this kerfuffle doesn't spill over into the debate, and Rick Perry had better be prepared with a damn good answer.
(4) Occupy Wall Street questions are almost inevitable. The base cannot stand the mob of hippies, communists, anti-capitalists, and sundry lefty hangers-on who comprise the bulk of the "movement." Organized labor and the Democrat Party establishment are getting on board, too. He (or she) with the best Occupy Wall Street-related zinger might win one of the biggest headlines tomorrow.
Candidates
Mitt Romney - The former Massachusetts Governor is in his own backyard, leading in the polls, and feeiling buoyed by the Christie "get." Deep down, he knows that Rush is right: Absent a tactonic shift in the race, Mitt will be the Republican nominee. His goal is to keep things moving on the current trajectory. It will be interesting to see if anyone besides Rick Perry will try to jolt Romney out of cruise control.
Herman Cain - With first-tier status comes first-tier scrutiny (and first-tier stage positioning). Expect more exploration of Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan, which I called for in an earlier post. It's been fascinating to watch the Romney-Cain partnership develop over the last few debates. Neither one has anything bad to say about the other, with Rick Perry hardest hit. At some point, if Cain is going to win this thing, he's going to have to attack his ally. Will that first salvo come tonight?
Rick Perry - The guy is still raking in major bucks and has never lost a campaign in his life. Reports of Perry's demise are -- for now -- premature, but the comeback train has to leave the station soon. Perry's campaign unleashed a brutal attack ad against Romneycare this week. Almost on cue (arguably, directly on cue), the White House has leaked the story that several top Romney healthcare advisors were actively involved in crafting Obamacare. If ever there were a time to really tee off on the frontrunner, tonight would be the night. Perry's probably got the most to gain, and he seems to enjoy mixing it up, so he'll likely lead the charge. But will be be able to pull it off succinctly and convincingly, unlike his slow-motion trainwreck in Orlando? The good news: Perry's son says his dad will be "well-rested" this time.
Newt Gingrich - I briefly heard Newt compare Occupy Wall Street to the Tea Party movement on a local radio show this morning. I wonder what he means by that, and whether he's read Ann Coulter's column on the subject.
Rick Santorum - The former Senator's expertise and greatest appeal to primary voters lie in the realms of foreign affairs and social issues. Does this mean he'll he flounder in an economic debate? Not at all, but he may feel less relevant.
Jon Huntsman - He needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to justify the continuation of his campaign, so Romney's the guy to beat. But some anti-Mormon rhetoric has seeped into this race over the last few days, and Huntsman might join forces with Romney to beat it back.
Michele Bachmann - One of her previous high water marks came here in the Granite State, when she made a stellar debate debut in June. She'll try to recapture the magic tonight.
Ron Paul - The retiring Texas Representative says many of his "extreme" views of three years ago have been vindicated by intervening events, and have now gained broader credibility and acceptance. He'll have another chance to explain why tonight.
Tonight's debate is being co-sponsored by Bloomberg, the Washington Post, and a local television station. Between Romneycare, Mormonism, and the "Occupy" mob, there could be major fireworks on tap. Tune in, and follow our live chat here at Townhall.
That question to Bachmann wasn’t a question, it was a kiss.
Romney blew Bachmann a kiss.
To be fair, he should thrown one to Cain, too.
Cain’s job in the rest of this campaign is to run interference for Romney so that no real anti-Romney candidate can emerge.
Palin herself couldn’t do it right now. Cain has enough core support to divide the conservative vote no matter who else is in. But not nearly enough to get him the nomination. (But that’s his whole point right now, isn’t it?)
Palin was smart to stay out of this.
She’s also in spectator mode.
I’m now in spectator mode.
We’ve got to get two or three people OFF the podium for the next debate.
Unfortunately, other than Huntsman, I don’t know which candidates you could kick off. Santorum would be the next choice by polls, and then Bachmann, but do we want them both gone? But you can’t get rid of Gingrich, Cain is now in the top tier, and nobody is going to have a debate without the two big money candidates Perry and Romney.
It's a commitment to rebuild from ashes if Romney is the candidate. Who cares how we get there?
Perry even motions and gestures the way Bush does. I honestly think that Perry would simply be Bush Pt. 3.
Hey? what happened to Gary Johnson, and His shovel ready neighbors dogs?
LOL! Well maybe you should give that idea to Perry's advertising team. That team is so good, I bet they could make a fantastic ad with even that. Plus, I'm SURE it would get some attention! :)
It’s the truth. The GOP could run Joran Vandersloot over Obama and I would be Dutch for a day.
Santorum has some really good points, too...but never seems to get enough time or questions. I think there is a good man there, hope he gets recognied for some important position. Romney and Perry have had their time, and they don't bring anything new to the table as far as I can tell. Bachmann is getting very tiring. She is good in politics, but I would not like her for the top position in our government.
The reality is, he'll do something worse...
It was an odd format and all he was asked about was 999. A minute isn’t enough to elaborate.
I Think he held his own. Next debate should be a different topic so we can look forward to that. All in all I thought tonight’s debate was the worst of the bunch. Newt always shines though. I’d give the win to him.
I kept hearing the "Obama can't win" line back in 2008 - even from Rush Limbaugh. I was silly enough to fall for it then, but I won't fall for it now. Any one of those candidates, save Huntsman and probably Bachmann, could win the nomination and defeat Obama.
He did what he had to do. He doesn’t win elections in debates. He is a fantastic campaigner, speaker, and puts out incredible ads. This wasn’t about filleting Mitt this time. It was about getting his message out, which he began to do. Later this week he’ll roll out details. He’s in good shape. This time in the 2008 primaries, McCain was almost dead last.
“I’m re-thinking the Newt. Even with his “baggage””
When Palin announced the she is not running I have kind of been wandering around looking to see who I can support next. Newts baggage has weighed heavily on me. However he might very well be the one I support.
Let me say though in the end if it turns out to be Romney than I will vote for him. Letting Obama in for 4 more years is just to much for me.
CAIN NEVER. He is in bed with the socialist, Romney and sand bagging you down the primrose lane, which you’ve already been taken down once before. LOL!!!!!!
Excuse me, YOU are the one spewing hate. I do not hate anyone. You owe me an apology because you can’t even tell me who it is that I hate.
never say never. Who would have thought Christie would be supporting Romeny of all people. It’s a bit telling about Christie though.
Yep! At this point in time, I don't give a rat's a*s if he's had 15 wives, we need a leader who can speak, articulate his/herself and put “it” out there for the people to see.
OTOH, strong closing statement by Perry. I just wish he had more fire, especially when he could have destroyed Romney over RomneyCare. IMO, he needed to hit a home run and he hit a solid double. I don’t know if that will be enough.
We've been over the Cain/Romney alliance; it's VERY real. I thought Cain was going to go after Mitt tonight? Still waiting for that...
I'm already sick of hearing “999”...it's a gimmick. I thought Santorum did a very good job slapping it down.
“So what are we gonna do?” I'm looking long and hard at Newt and also to see if Rick builds on this debate performance.
I’m Stickin’.
Rick said his economic plan is in the works and will be released within 3 days.
I know what his governance has done for Texas in the past 10 years.
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