The Cook Report: It’s Perry’s to Win

National Journal ^ | 8th October 2011 | Charlie Cook

[shield]

Now that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has announced he will not seek the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, all of the Republican donors, elected officials, and party activists pining for a savior to jump into the race must face the reality that the field is set. They need to channel Stephen Stills: “If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with.”

No doubt the fundraisers for Mitt Romney and Rick Perry are tying up the phone lines into New York’s financial district, wooing donors who had either been holding out for Christie or had used him as an excuse to remain on the sidelines.

Both the Perry and Romney camps can argue that the Republicans who would have supported Christie will now gravitate toward their candidate. Perry backers can point to Christie’s brash, in-your-face style and say that the Texan is more temperamentally and stylistically similar. In that sense, it’s true, Romney and Christie could hardly be more different. But ideologically, Romney might actually be a closer match. It’s hard to imagine Perry mimicking Christie’s support for the ban on assault rifles and current gun laws or saying, as Christie did when he was running for governor, that he is anti-abortion, but would not “force that down people’s throats.” The truth may well be that social and cultural issues aren’t particularly important to either Christie or Romney.

In the end, it’s a good bet that neither Romney nor Perry will inherit an appreciable number of supporters; it’s the donors who wanted Christie who are now in play. With the fourth quarter just getting started, it will take a while to ascertain who wins the donor primary.

[Polybius]

Yup, I think Perry is still the only legitimate anti-Romney with any staying power. Cain I suspect will flame out at some point, and we will be left with Perry to be the only real opposition to Romney.

Political issues aside, one huge problem with Cain is that it seems that his primary goal in this Presidential run was to duplicate Sarah Palin's financial success in the marketplace rather than actually win the first election that he has ever won in his entire life.

Conservatives should be very careful about replacing unquestioning faith in one public figure with unquestioning faith in a second public figure.

Don't just listen to the Sound Bites that a public figure throws out. Pay close attention to how seriously they are taking campaign logistics. Palin's total lack of attention to the campaign logistics infrastructure of a serious Presidential campaign (No staff, no courting major donors, no organization, no investing time actually campaigning and not simply at venues designed seek TV face time and enhance the "Brand") was an obvious Red Flag that was rationalized away as "creating her own rules" and "brilliant secret strategy".

In the end, all the talk about Sun Tzu was merely self deception.

Sun Tzu would have agreed with Omar Bradley:

"Amateurs talk about strategy and professionals talk about logistics."

Presently, Cain, like Sarah Palin before him, is not focusing on the logistics of a serious campaign. He is focusing on a book-signing tour.

Herman Cain's top Iowa staff resigns ..... Goff stated that she resigned because the Cain campaign refused to make a serious effort in Iowa, the home of the First-in-the-Nation caucuses.

Cain Campaign: Selling a Candidate or Selling Books? ..... But even as he enjoys the fickle embrace of the party’s social conservatives, doubts are being raised about the straight-talking businessman’s legitimacy, and even his motives. Instead of capitalizing on his newfound momentum by hitting the campaign trail hard, Cain this week opted to spend most of his time promoting his book, This is Herman Cain! My Journey to the White House, which just arrived in retail stores this week. Rather than visit diners in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s signing books at Barnes & Noble outlets in Texas and Washington D.C., although his tour does also include several stops in South Carolina and Florida, two key primary states. .... Steve Deace, an Iowa-based talk show host, posed the question on the minds of many people aligned with the Republican Party: “Is that guy running for president or just lining up a book tour?” .... But, as Block also said, the campaign has just 30 staff members spread across five states, fewer perhaps than one of Cain’s former pizzerias. The candidate this week was scheduled for six book signings and just three traditional campaign events. .... An e-mail that went out to Cain supporters the day before his upset victory in the Florida straw poll wasn’t about one of Cain’s policy positions but instead offered them a chance to buy a collector’s edition box set of the book, complete with a red case and gold trim. “Consider giving a loved one a copy of This is Herman Cain,” it said. “You wouldn’t be giving them just a book. You’d give them a gift to open again and again.” ..... One GOP strategist said he didn’t think Cain’s book tour was bad strategy – business strategy, at least. Cain knows he isn’t going to win the nomination, despite his recent rise in the polls, said Rich Galen, a Republican consultant and former aide to House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is also vying for the nomination. “It’s very smart to leverage his political surge to sell more books,” Galen said. “He’s a smart businessman.”

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

then we can say to Whoopi... “so much for the race card “!

And then what would those unemployed Blacks do who secretly would love to leave Obozo in the privacy of the voting booth!

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

He does have to get more passionate about defending himself.

[jonrick46]

""I used to be for illegals, bi-ntl insurance and against border fences...not necessarily in that order. Then I became a presidential candidate, had a couple debates--and saw my numbers tank into oblivion."

I have been looking all over for where Governor Rick Perry said the above quote. Where did you find it? Or did you find it at the end of the Santa Monica Pier?

[mylife]

Oh, I believe he will.

I think he is playing rope a dope.

[Psalm 144]

One of the few times I agree with you on the details.

[casinva]

Maybe Cain is confusing the in-state issue with securing the borders cause you’re right. It might make more sense to say he wouldn’t support Perry for the in-state tuition thing, but it makes absolutely NO sense to decline a VP slot based on the vast amount of work and commitment Perry has done throughout all these years on border defenses and homeland security measures. I was sorry to hear that about Cain. I thought Cain might be a good VP match for Perry and actually had a Perry - Cain 2012 FR tag for quite some time.

[casinva]

Nice article. Thanks for posting.

It was interesting how the author compared Chris Christie’s personality with Rick Perry (at least the hard driving, no holds barred Rick Perry we knew before that last debate) and then to compare Chris Christie’s stands on issues to be those of Mitt Romney. That complex description of those three people seems to fit pretty well.

[Longbow1969]

Presently, Cain, like Sarah Palin before him, is not focusing on the logistics of a serious campaign. He is focusing on a book-signing tour.

Well, the book signing tour was probably long pre-planned and now that he is doing so well he is just incorporating it into his campaign - but yeah, I get your point and agree with it.

Conservatives really don't want to have to settle for Romney and are jumping to on whatever bandwagon that seems strong at the moment. It was kind of Bachmann for awhile, then Perry, some held out for Palin, etc.

At the end I just don't think Cain's polling numbers will translate into actual votes. Electability is just going to weigh too heavily on people and Cain as a political novice is dangerous because he is such an unknown and could implode mid campaign were he to get the nomination. And it looks to me like Perry is the only one with a major campaign operation in place that can challenge Mitt in most/all the primaries. In the end, it will still be between those Perry and Romney in my view.

If Perry starts turning in decent debate performances and stops with the self inflicted wounds, he will rise quickly in the polls and Cain will fall back.

[Longbow1969]

Perry's position on immigration is not as bad as many are trying to make it out to be. As far as actual immigration itself, Perry has pleaded with the feds to secure the border.

I disagree with some of Perry's positions on immigration, but your right, it isn't this massive deal breaker some were making it out to be. The problem is Perry was not nimble enough to finesse it and put the issue to bed during the debates - and his campaign is far too slow in dealing with his flubs and self inflicted wounds.

Romney has far more flip flips and a blatantly more RINO record than Perry, but Mitt is a good debater and a polished politician and can turn away the criticism with relative ease.

I think Perry also vaulted to the top so fast that ALL the other candidates came after him at once, and the Palin fans saw him as a threat to the entry of their candidate and raged against him all over the place to weaken him. Now that the field is set (and Sarah is totally out), I think it will begin to dawn on people once Cain fades (and I think he will) that Perry is really the only thing probably stopping Romney from winning the nomination. People will likely start gravitating back to him and the supporters of other candidates and non candidates will cease much of the rage and hate against him. The rest is up to Perry. He needs to do much better in the debates and kick into high gear and run a much more solid campaign. If he can't get his act together, well, I think we are probably stuck with Romney.

[Longbow1969]

Why are the GOP candidates so inarticulate, all of them, Cain included? Gingrich is the only one that can put obama in his place and frazzle his audacity.

Really good, articulate, intellectually conservative candidates without glaring flaws or skeletons in their closet come around rarely. It really makes one appreciate Ronald Reagan and realize there may not be another in any of our lifetimes.

I always go back to Prime Ministers Questions if you've ever seen it. If a our candidate is not quick enough on his or her feet to handle a sometimes hostile back and forth like that, then they probably can't communicate very well and will be endlessly frustrating communications wise the way Bush was.

Personally I think Cain is pretty impressive and quick on his feet. The problem is, I don't think Cain can actually win the nomination as a political novice.

[P-Marlowe]

Why are the GOP candidates so inarticulate, all of them, Cain included?

Because all you have been getting from them is soundbites. It is very hard to articulate a conservative message in a 30 second soundbite. It is easy to spit out a liberal soundbite, because there is no substance needed.

Gingrich is the only one that can put obama in his place and frazzle his audacity.

Gingrich is a master at making a complicated argument seem simple and is also a master at doing it in as few words as possible.

[parisa]

Unfortunately Cain didn’t do so well against the socialist rabble-rouser o’donnell today. He could and should have shoved it right back in his face rhetorically and wiped that self-satisfied smirk off of his socialist race-baiting face, but Cain came across as defensive and unprepared and o’donnell, satisfied that he’d scored points and drawn blood. This will not do against the community agitator.

[narses]

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[ImpBill]

I really like your tagline.

And most of what you posted. But I really, really like your tagline.

[ImpBill]

Have you ever wondered how many people who aren’t real political junkies even watch the “debates” (which of course they are not real debates)? Those of us in the “junkie” class, I believe, put way more weight to them than the average voter. But as in all things, I could be wrong.

[Longbow1969]

Those of us in the “junkie” class, I believe, put way more weight to them than the average voter. But as in all things, I could be wrong.

Well, Perry was way up prior to hitting the stage and after his debate performances (particularly the 3rd) he fell way back. Something caused that and I think it was his poor performances - especially debate number three.

[shield]

Look Cain is suppose to be a smart man...yet, he says Perry is soft on the border, that is exactly what he meant...well, I X'ed Cain out when he stepped out there and lied about Perry. I surely hope when Perry is the nominee he picks someone who he can trust with complete loyalty and Cain ain't it.

Here is what Dr. Jack Wheeler says about Cain toward Perry today: Will it be show time for Cain? Will one of his competitors ask him about the fatal flaw in his 9-9-9 tax reform plan? As Erik Erickson asks it:

"Given the Republican Party has a unparalleled history of being unable or unwilling to truly scale back the size and scope of the federal government and its creeping socialism, do we really want the Republican Party to be the party to introduce a national sales tax or VAT tax without first repealing the income tax?"

There's also the question of to what extent Cain is a jerk. He certainly is one towards Perry for whom he expresses a personal animus. He refuses to apologize for implying that Perry was somehow "insensitive" regarding the Niggerhead Rock smear, and told Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday (10/05) that:

"If it's one of those other candidates up there (who gets the nomination instead of him), I am going to support them 100%. If Governor Perry gets the nomination, I will still support him, but it won't be 100%."

Sorry, but this is simply being a jerk. Perry wants to repeal the 16th and 17th Amendments, and drastically reduce the size and power of the federal government via the 10th Amendment, while Romney as an establishment RINO will do none of this. But Cain could get behind the RINO and not the 10th Amendment guy?

His argument is particularly pathetic, misconstruing Perry's stand on illegal immigration. The hypocrisy is glaring, for, as the regional manager of hundreds of Burger Kings and CEO of Godfather's Pizza, he employed hundreds if not thousands of illegals. Has anyone ever asked him what actions he took to ensure the businesses he ran hired no illegals?

There's a lot to like in Herman Cain, but there's a lot to give one pause as well.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Looks like Charlie picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

[shield]

Dr. Jack Wheeler said Charlie is the best out there.