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The Cook Report: It’s Perry’s to Win
National Journal ^ | 8th October 2011 | Charlie Cook

Posted on 10/07/2011 1:47:11 PM PDT by shield

Now that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has announced he will not seek the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, all of the Republican donors, elected officials, and party activists pining for a savior to jump into the race must face the reality that the field is set. They need to channel Stephen Stills: “If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with.”

No doubt the fundraisers for Mitt Romney and Rick Perry are tying up the phone lines into New York’s financial district, wooing donors who had either been holding out for Christie or had used him as an excuse to remain on the sidelines.

Both the Perry and Romney camps can argue that the Republicans who would have supported Christie will now gravitate toward their candidate. Perry backers can point to Christie’s brash, in-your-face style and say that the Texan is more temperamentally and stylistically similar. In that sense, it’s true, Romney and Christie could hardly be more different. But ideologically, Romney might actually be a closer match. It’s hard to imagine Perry mimicking Christie’s support for the ban on assault rifles and current gun laws or saying, as Christie did when he was running for governor, that he is anti-abortion, but would not “force that down people’s throats.” The truth may well be that social and cultural issues aren’t particularly important to either Christie or Romney.

In the end, it’s a good bet that neither Romney nor Perry will inherit an appreciable number of supporters; it’s the donors who wanted Christie who are now in play. With the fourth quarter just getting started, it will take a while to ascertain who wins the donor primary.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aclownpost; anyonebutperry; apresidentcain; apresidentperry; biggovernmentcain; bushlovesperry; cainforpolice; cainforteachers; clownpost; clownposter; cronycapitalistperry; ignoranceisbliss; justsaynotoperry; larazarick; losercain; notreadyrick; obotsforperry; perrybots; perrybotscluesness; perrybush; perryclownposse; perryemptysuit; perryfordogcatcher; perryliarsattack; perryromenysvp; perrythegopbot; perrywins; peryrisamoron; rinorickey; rinos4perry; sinkobama; taxmancain; zotperry
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1 posted on 10/07/2011 1:47:15 PM PDT by shield
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; RoosterRedux; jonrick46; deepbluesea; RockinRight; TexMom7; potlatch; ...
Perry Ping....

IF you'd rather NOT be pinged FReepmail me.

IF you'd like to be added FReepmail me. Thanks.

*****************************************************************************************************************************************************

GOVERNOR RICK PERRY: Gun control is hitting the target you're aiming at.......

2 posted on 10/07/2011 1:48:19 PM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: shield

The Hurricane of Perry/Cain. Flushing out the swamps of Washington, D.C. Breaching the levee of the DNC. Blowing away the left.


3 posted on 10/07/2011 1:52:20 PM PDT by shankbear (Bush's fault......that is more in bad taste than my old tag line........)
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To: shield
Now that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has announced he will not seek the 2012 GOP presidential nomination

Christie has yet to do anything meaningful for the average NJ citizen to make his life less burdensome in the state he represents. Had he entered the race he would have failed miserably due to his many RINO policies.

4 posted on 10/07/2011 1:52:30 PM PDT by frogjerk (Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. - HAZLITT)
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To: shield
>>>>>>Perry has shown a proclivity to step on his own body parts and will undoubtedly do so again. The question is whether he learns from his mistakes. If he does, he will be the GOP nominee and stands a fair chance of beating President Obama....

A good dose of Reagan optimism is desperately needed.

5 posted on 10/07/2011 1:54:53 PM PDT by Reagan Man ("In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.")
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To: shield
I would love to see Perry win it (or Cain for that matter), but I don't think he will.

The attacks from the left have hurt, but the ones against him from the GOP establishment and some others on the right have been deadly.

His only chance is if he can somehow go on the offensive in way we have not yet seen and do it very quickly. I will be shocked if he can pull it off, but I guess we'll see.

6 posted on 10/07/2011 1:58:01 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: shield

Yup, I think Perry is still the only legitimate anti-Romney with any staying power. Cain I suspect will flame out at some point, and we will be left with Perry to be the only real opposition to Romney. This assumes that Perry actually delivers some decent debate performances and becomes a much better candidate, otherwise Romney may just run away with it. Cain is a great guy, but electability will be a big factor and I suspect primary voters will have too many doubts about him.


7 posted on 10/07/2011 2:01:22 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: shield
I heard some excerpts of Romney's citadel speech...I think he is sharpening his skills...He will suck in a lot of folks with that rhetoric..Perry's "you have no heart" will go down as the Howard Dean scream of this election cycle

Cain didn't handle O'donnel as well as he could have...I think it's because Herman has been the boss for so long now, it's probably been years since he tolerated a smart ass inferior like o'Dummy arguing with him....I'm hoping he gets in a room with a sparring partner and practice his repartee...He should be wiping the floor with any msnbc stooge..

8 posted on 10/07/2011 2:01:35 PM PDT by lawnguy (The function of wisdom is to discriminate between good and evil-Cicero)
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To: shield

Why are the GOP candidates so inarticulate, all of them, Cain included? Gingrich is the only one that can put obama in his place and frazzle his audacity.


9 posted on 10/07/2011 2:02:52 PM PDT by parisa
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To: Reagan Man
Cain may be the new flavor of the month. But without the apparatus, money, or expertise in actually winning a party’s nomination, it’s doubtful that he can go very far. The current flurry won’t keep the titans of business and finance on the sidelines; their skepticism will likely mirror that of the political pros and pundits.

Reagan optimism you bet. Jack Wheeler says Charlie Cook is the most respected political prognosticator in the country.

10 posted on 10/07/2011 2:04:13 PM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: shield

Money makers have a lot to do with elections....in that respect, I think Perry will out do Romney. South Carolina will hold the key...

Final Results — — 33.2 29.9 15.1 15.7 3.7 2.1 McCain +3.3 2008

The division of the religious and fiscal conservatives gave McCain the election last year. Him picking up the establishment vote.

Who ever appears the most religious and capable will probably win this key state. I find it hard to believe Romney will, but I was surprised McCain won last time around.

I’d much prefer Perry. Cain isn’t a bad man, but I don’t think he has the organization and capital flowing his way. Even Reagan who was extremely experienced required time/capital to get to the top of the nomination pack. Obama was an anomaly in the democratic party. Usually you get someone with some experience to win it all.


11 posted on 10/07/2011 2:06:44 PM PDT by Rick_Michael ( 'REAL' Conservatives who witch hunt their own, are no better than Obama.)
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To: shankbear
Cain is oddly going after Perry in a way that seems he has a personal dislike of Perry. He clearly likes Romney. I think Cain also said he wouldn't support Perry because his weakness on securing the border.

That is a weird statement. In state tuition, fine, securing the border? No.

If Perry wins I hope he picks Scott Walker.

12 posted on 10/07/2011 2:09:17 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: All
Perry has shown a proclivity to step on his own body parts and will undoubtedly do so again.

"I used to be for illegals, bi-ntl insurance and against border fences...
not necessarily in that order. Then I became a presidential candidate,
had a couple debates--and saw my numbers tank into oblivion."

"Hey, amigos, things change. Now you'll get nothing from me but agita."

13 posted on 10/07/2011 2:11:52 PM PDT by Liz (The rule of law must prevail. We canÂ’t govern ourselves by our personal point of view.)
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To: Longbow1969

I agree. If I was Perry’s campaign manager, I would tell him to focus almost primarily in Iowa and South Carolina...then Florida. Of coarse going other places for campaign money. Then I would avoid any long-winded answers in the debates. Appearing middle of the pack has it’s good side. I always hear great things about the people that lose, never about the people that win....

Cain’s not a bad guy, but he doesn’t quite have the organization to compete with Romney. And I worry that FR will be the stompin ground for a third party candidate if Romney wins. And while I don’t want Romney to win, I don’t think a third party would be at all wise. It would just mean four more years of Obama. Unless I see significant improvement in Cains organization and funding, I will continually support Perry.


14 posted on 10/07/2011 2:13:33 PM PDT by Rick_Michael ( 'REAL' Conservatives who witch hunt their own, are no better than Obama.)
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To: normy

Scott Walker as VP!? Now that’s ambitious..haha. It would surely send a message to public unions,...that’s for sure!


15 posted on 10/07/2011 2:19:26 PM PDT by Rick_Michael ( 'REAL' Conservatives who witch hunt their own, are no better than Obama.)
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To: normy

I am with you. I saw you post that the other day...so I’m now a PERRY/WALKER supporter. Great idea...but would Scott Walker leave as governor after only serving a short time? Perry is such good friends with all the governors...he’ll definitely have some very good advise on his VP pick. I had liked the idea of Cain...but since Cain has been a jerk toward Perry...that’s the last man he should pick.


16 posted on 10/07/2011 2:21:22 PM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: shield

Perry will sink on the immigration issue alone.

Herman Cain is Da Man!


17 posted on 10/07/2011 2:22:29 PM PDT by Palladin (Fast and Furious = Obama's Waterloo.)
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To: shield
Like I said earlier, it seems Cain has a personal dislike of Perry.

Perry knows all these Republican Governors well and everyone is talking about Senators and the current crop of Republican candidates for President.

I want a power move!

18 posted on 10/07/2011 2:23:34 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Rick_Michael

Tomorrow Perry will be in Iowa with 3 different events.


19 posted on 10/07/2011 2:28:58 PM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: Liz

Putting words not spoken by Rick Perry in quote marks and attributing them to Rick Perry is supposed to accomplish what?


20 posted on 10/07/2011 2:29:58 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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