Posted on 10/04/2011 10:45:37 AM PDT by Constitutionalist Conservative
Texas’ historic and lingering drought has already worn out its welcome, but it could easily stay around for years and there is a chance it might last another five years or even until 2020, says a Texas A&M University weather expert.
John Nielsen-Gammon, who serves as Texas State Climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M, says the culprit is the likely establishment of a new La Niña in the central Pacific Ocean. A La Niña is formed when colder than usual ocean temperatures form in the central Pacific, and these tend to create wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest but also drier than normal conditions in the Southwest. A La Niña has been blamed for starting the current drought but the new one, which began developing several weeks ago, is likely to extend drought conditions for Texas and much of the Southwest.
Currently, about 95 percent of Texas is in either a severe or exceptional drought status and the past year has been the worst one-year drought in the state’s history, Nielsen-Gammon adds.
“This is looking more and more like a multi-year drought,” explains the Texas A&M professor.
“September is already proving to be an exceptionally dry month and overall, little more than an inch of rain on average has occurred over Texas, compared to about three inches in a normal year. So a very dry state has become even drier.”
Many parts of Texas are from 10 to 20 inches behind in rainfall.
“We know that Texas has experienced droughts that lasted several years,” adds Nielsen-Gammon. “Many residents remember the drought of the 1950s, and tree ring records show that drought conditions occasionally last for a decade or even longer. I’m concerned because the same ocean conditions that seem to have contributed to the 1950s drought have been back for several years now and may last another five to 15 years.”
The drought has devastated farmers and ranchers, and officials have estimated agriculture losses at more than $5.2 billion. This summer, hundreds of wildfires erupted in Texas and burned more than 127,000 acres, the most ever, and lake levels are down as much as 50 feet in some lakes while several West Texas lakes have completely dried up.
Numerous Texas cities set heat records this summer, such as Wichita Falls, which recorded 100 days of 100-degree heat, the most ever for that city. Dallas also set a record with 70 days of 100-degree heat, and the city had to close down 25 sports fields because large cracks in the ground were deemed unsafe for athletic competition.
“Our best chance to weaken the drought would have been a tropical system coming in from the gulf, but that never happened and hurricane season is just about over for us,” Nielsen-Gammon reports. “There’s still hope for significant rain through the end of October while tropical moisture is still hanging around, but that’s all it is – a hope.”
“In the next few months, the outlook is not all that promising for rain. Parts of Texas, such as the Panhandle and far Northeast Texas, have a better chance than the rest of the state,” he adds.
“Because Texas needs substantially above-normal rain to recover, and it’s not likely to get it, I expect that most of the state will still be in major drought through next summer.”
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Contact: Keith Randall, News & Information Services, at (979) 845-4644 or John Nielsen-Gammon at (979) 862-2248
Without reading the article, I can say with certitude, they don’t know that the drought will last until 2020.
These same people have a 10% chance forecast for Thursday, 10% Friday, 20% Sat and Sunday.
They have no freaking idea what’s happening this weekend, so they have zip squat to tell me about years or decades from now.
And oh by the way, if this guy CAN predict years in the future, then where in the HADES was this aggie moron (but I repeat myself) years ago predicting THIS YEAR’S drought????
Illegal alien deterrent... turn texas into a desert... Hmmmm...
let’s pray
for rain.
Correct. The only truism in Texas: “If you don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes.”
That the weather has been so constant for so long suggests to me more that change is likely.
At least that’s what I’m praying for! Hope and Weather Change!
I’m just east of Houston and we haven’t seen more than a couple of mosquitoes all summer. That’s dry.
He really went out on a limb here, lol. Nothing short of weekly monsoons would bring us back to normal within a year.
Guess what, folks?
There is NO SUCH THING as a "weather expert", at A&M or elsewhere.
Just like predicting hurricanes, the stock market, Super Bowl champions, there are those who make outlandish predictions so that if they come true, people will flock to them as the next Nostradamus. When they are wrong, no one ever remembers. There is a lot of money to be made as a guru.
Coming from UPstate NY and living in Texas for 8.5 years, I have learned one important item about the folks from the Lone Star State:
They are a very strong people. They will survive and prosper. A drought is not the end of the world.
That’s why you should read the article...sine that’s NOT what they said.
No state with both abundant, cheap natural gas, and a coastline, should ever want because of drought. Instead it should use it resources to desalinate water and pump it inland to drought area reservoirs.
But what about those times when there isn’t a drought?
No problem. Though there are wet times, those areas could be much more profitable with even more water. Warm or hot weather and an abundance of water and fuel means prosperity.
Even the panhandle could be lush, green and prosperous with enough water.
My reaction exactly. Two or three months from now it will probably be flooding in Texas and stories like this will be long forgotten - and no one will every be called upon to apologize for their stupid predictions.
Those forecasts are most by NWS forecast offices...and this is a climatologist.
And where was he? Predicting it. It was very obvious we were headed into a long term drought when we went into La Nina back last October.
People like you make me laugh.
OMG!!!!!........ I can’t get an accurate prediction on what the weather will be like tomorrow, and these stupidfrigginjackasses are gonna expect me to swallow a 15 to 20 YEAR prediction??????? sorry commies, but my IQ not only reaches into, but exceeds the double digits....
Looks like we have a global coolist here, fellas....
I think that all the flood states and drought states should get together and build a flood control canal and ship the water south during the flood season.. This would save the country hundreds of billions of dollars in damages in the long run! Either canals or pipes either one would work!!!
Sounds a whole lot to me like they are talking about a recurring annual drought, not a literally continuous one. Texas will get rain — well after the farms could use it.
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