This is no cause for rejoicing, for it isn’t even close to the break-even numbers. That number is 350,000, if you ask the experts even a year or two ago. Then it was bumped up to 400,000. Why? Pure politics.
After checking the job-turmoil-transitioning numbers of the high employment eras of Clinton and GW Bush, I found the weekly applications number to have been about 250,000 or so.
IOW, to get back to the times of near full employment, even 350,000 is too high.
And they are throwing a victory dance over 390,000+
What it means is that a huge percentage of those people filing for claims weren’t just part of job-turmoil-transition. They had actually lost a job that had disappeared for everyone else, too.
Let the press trump this up...that just means more people who are on their butts will look for work next week and then zap a hugh spike—I’m series.
This morning I heard a TV genius say 375 K is now the “progress”,number. But he’s full of Krap and so is anyone else who thinks we can gain ground so long as the unemployment filing rate is even one (1) larger than the “new jobs” rate. We need something north of 100K new jobs/ month just to accomodate population growth, school grads, etc. While it’s clearly desirable to quit losing jobs progress will not be made until the differential (losses minus news) goes to zero and starts going the other way. And Stu Varney is correct: We need at least +200K new jobs / month if we ever expect to see the turn-of-the-century business level again.