Posted on 09/27/2011 6:34:00 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
This is a cautionary tale about reading too much into the early debate showings of any party's candidates, no matter how good or bad.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
First of all, I never said I didn’t like Perry, so there’s no need to project. I’m merely trying to point out your contention that Perry isn’t losing support is unfounded. You have stated as a fact that Perry hasn’t lost any support, but your reasoning for such a strong statement has been suspect from the start. You don’t seem to realize that you are engaged in wishful thinking rather than analytical analysis.
First, you dismissed straw polls as being unscientific and said your put your faith in scientific polls. Then it was pointed out that there haven’t been scientific polls conducted since the most recent debate, except for one. You then suggested the CNN poll had to be accurate, since it mirrors prior polls. But that’s the whole point of the discussion - how much impact did the debate have on Perry. We can’t say for sure until there are more polls conducted that either confirm or refute the CNN poll.
Now, you are basing your conclusion on your own personal feelings about why you won’t abandon Perry. That’s nice, but do you think you speak for all Perry supporters? If you started off the thread with your own thoughts about why you still back Perry than all would be fine.
“follow the rules” currently means GO BACK TO MEXICO and get a visa.
well... it seems we will have to agree to disagree, at least until another scientific poll is released.
But if another legitimate poll comes out showing no significant movement in Perry’s numbers... what are you going to say then?
Not at all confusing. She first secures the boarder totally. Well, again, first, let me go back to the importance of securing the border. Then she makes all illegals register. Do we make them register with the federal government? Yes, we do. She then finds any who do not register and deports them. You deport them. At that point she demands that all who have registered apply for legal status demanding that they follow existing laws. We don't reward their continued bad behavior. If there are fines or punishments they will be imposed. You're not going to give them a free pass.
BTW, I have NEVER stated that I hate Perry... there are 2 that are running which I do NOT like 1 bit, and neither one of them are Perry.
Many of the problems I see growing on this site is when other posters put words in other posters mouths for them... it only stirs up the friction more... this is why I usually don’t bother replying to posts like that. I am NOT here to stir up cr*p.. I am here to read up info on all of the contenders so I get a better view of all of their positions and beliefs.
When there are posters saying things like what you usually say (project), it does NOT help your preferred candidate in any way, at all.
Consider that before questioning others (and throwing blanket statements).
Grrr.. I did it again.. I just get ahead of myself.. Wish there was an auto ping (or another check box, “Do you need to ping anyone?”.) lol
If Perry can recover, and he wins the caucus, he has a chance to run the tables. I do not see a Romney win. Cain? I don't know, it's a possiblity, depending on what happens. I do know among my friends and relatives there has been a lot of Perry support. Santorum is working Iowa--hard. He is a good man and probably deserves more than what he's getting.
I do not see much Palin support at all. Those that care about her, really care about her, but they are few and far between. I only know one.
Yep, it does. Having said that we have to admit that we are somewhat between a rock and a hard place. There is no doubt that deporting all illegals in this country would be devastating to the economy here. If one honestly assesses the situation one would be hard pressed to find a solution that involves complete deportation not having dire consequences to the tenuous economic situation in this country already. We the people, through those we have elected, have allowed ourselves to be put in a position with no easy fixes.
I like Palins approach as she has articulated it which vociferously states that no prior action can be taken until the boarder is completely and totally secured. At that time all immigrants must register with the government or be deported. Then a decision needs to be made as to sanctions for having already broken our immigration laws that would include some sort of legal process to ultimately become citizens.
I have heard no other candidate or potential candidate articulate anything like that.
Obama already devastated it, and the illegals merely add to the misery.
Did you also miss this part?
She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.
Polls only provide a snapshot at a particular point in time. Right now, we don’t have that snapshot for the time period after the debate, so neither you nor I can say for sure if there is any movement in Perry’s numbers. All we have right now are guesses.
Once we have more poll data then we’ll know if your guess is accurate. My prediction is that it won’t be. However, if the polls do show that your guess is validated, then you win the prize ;)
That’s exactly how it works. Pawlenty left after the Iowa Straw Poll. It’s a demolition derby.
The media really did a bang up job of destroying her (unfairly in my opinion) in fact, to this day, if you asked Joe smo on the street who said they could see Russia from their front porch ... they would say Palin (sigh) Oh well, I hope she can still find happiness in this life, and hopefully some area in politics where she can make a difference. Maybe RNC head? heck I don't know, but something.
If these people are coming here illegally, what makes Palin think she can get them to register after they're here. How is she going to track them all down to register them?
Palin says it's impossible to deport them and she wants to give them benefits.
She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.
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"I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don't know. They're outside my ken. But sometimes when I'm in a theater I can feel them."
~Pauline Kael
I think that seems reasonable. I wouldn’t be suprised if Perry does dip into the low 20’s, but I don’t expect a surge from Romney either....he simply won’t get enough conservative support because he’s a RINO-liberal.
I think if Perry does lose some support it would go towards other candidates, like Cain, instead of Romney.
That’s exactly what I concluded from the straw polls. Romney has a ceiling of support, sort of like Paul that he will never be able to get above in my opinion.
Which helps me breath a little easier, because I honestly was about to have a mental meltdown if Romney picked up Perry’s support and surged into the 30’s.
No, not exactly. Pawlenty left of his own accord, not voted off.
I’m with you there. If Romney surges into the 30’s (very doubtful IMO), it will be a bloodbath around here....
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