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Rick Perry's underwhelming debates: Do they matter?
The LA Times ^ | 9/27/11 | Andrew Malcolm

Posted on 09/27/2011 6:34:00 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009

This is a cautionary tale about reading too much into the early debate showings of any party's candidates, no matter how good or bad.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012debates; debate; gardasil; heartless; openborders; perry; perry2012; romney
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Ok fine, but most of the polls mentioned in Real Clear Politics are old (pre FL debate). Since, the Florida debate was declared to be pretty bad for Perry, it will be important to see how the polls that you accept will look.

It’s misleading of you to suggest Perry hasn’t taken a hit, when you don’t have solid data to support your position. The only data we have at this point is from straw polls and such, which clearly suggest Perry is falling.

If you want to caution using straw polls that’s fine, but you can’t then say “scientific” polls support your conclusion when those polls aren’t current.

The correct conclusion is that there is some reason to believe, based on straw polls, that Perry is declining, but we won’t know for sure until more relevant poll data is acquired.


41 posted on 09/27/2011 8:01:53 AM PDT by Turtlepower
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To: PoloSec
Rick Perry’s underwhelming conservatism is what matters.

*******************************

"Underwhelming" is an understatement.

42 posted on 09/27/2011 8:02:48 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: Liz
Perry's toast. His 'Heartless' attack - and that what it was, was the final straw.

We get that crap from Hillary, Pelosi, Di-Fi, etc with the 'It's For The Children' nonsense.

Perry can go to Hades.

43 posted on 09/27/2011 8:02:56 AM PDT by Condor51 (Yo Hoffa, so you want to 'take out conservatives'. Well okay Jr - I'm your Huckleberry)
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To: Turtlepower

But your wrong.

If had looked closer at the polls you would have noticed that the latest scientific poll was taken after this latest debate and that the numbers hadn’t moved.

Perry was still at 28% Romney still at 21% exactly where they have been for the past month.


44 posted on 09/27/2011 8:04:50 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: Turtlepower
I think there is “some” value to the straw polls, I think the straw polled showed that if Perry were to lose support it wouldn't go to Romney but would instead go to one of the other candidates like Cain.

Now remember I did mention outliers... there is a slight possibility that the CNN poll released yesterday could be an outlier, we will know for sure once the next scientific poll of the race is released. But the fact that the poll yesterday so completely matched the trend for the past month strongly suggests that Perry took no significant damage to his support. BUT, if you look closely at the numbers you will see that Gingrich's support is showing some movement... which could mean that although Perry has not lost support, and Romney has not picked up any support, some of the undecided voters are starting to lean towards the 2nd tier candidates like Gingrich and Cain.

45 posted on 09/27/2011 8:10:33 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“there is a slight possibility that the CNN poll released yesterday could be an outlier, we will know for sure once the next scientific poll of the race is released.”

The fact is you are basing your entire arguement now on 1 single poll from CNN...CNN! You admit it could be an outlier, yet you continue to say with confidence, “You are wrong”. It’s hilarious that now Freepers use CNN polls as the source of truth. Typically, they deride them as biased.

You truly sound like a blind, Perry homer that just doesn’t want to hear any negative news about your boy. If you would have just said from the beginning, there is insufficient poll data to say for sure that Perry is taking a hit, then you would be fine. Instead, you’ve been defensive and sure of your position since the get-go, despite not having solid poll data to support you.


46 posted on 09/27/2011 8:16:45 AM PDT by Turtlepower
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To: TexasFreeper2009

All we need is the good doc to announce, he’s dead Jim. Everyone else knows he is in free fall.


47 posted on 09/27/2011 8:23:50 AM PDT by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by Perry and his fellow democrats.)
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To: Turtlepower
I come from a math background, and the numbers are the numbers.

At this point in time there is an extremely high probability that Perry still stands in the high 20’s based on all the data that has been released to date. The data doesn't care what you or I think, it doesn't care what the news channels have to say, the data is the data.

Perry appears, based on the data to have a base of support in the high 20’s, Romney appears to have a base of support in the low 20’s. That's just what the data says.

48 posted on 09/27/2011 8:24:38 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I donated money to Herman Cain’s campaign last night.


49 posted on 09/27/2011 8:24:41 AM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: chris37

good :) I would love to see Cain and Gingrich still around until at least Iowa. Since Bachmann is for sure going to stay in until she looses Iowa, at which time Cain and or Gingrich has a good chance of picking up her supporters.


50 posted on 09/27/2011 8:26:15 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: Bikkuri
Look, you Palin lovers are not even willing to look at her positions on issues. When you do, and if you care about her positions, you may find a totally flawed human being instead of a person that has been portrayed by her followers as being beyond reproach--she's not.

So why do you hate Perry? He's more conservative than Palin.

51 posted on 09/27/2011 8:29:03 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“At this point in time there is an extremely high probability that Perry still stands in the high 20’s based on the single CNN poll that I’m putting all my confidence in.”

Fixed for you.

Just admit you are basing your views about “high probability” on a single poll, which you admit could be an outlier. You are the one who is projecting based upon your desires, rather than data.

Why can’t you just revise your position to say you don’t know for sure?


52 posted on 09/27/2011 8:33:28 AM PDT by Turtlepower
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner
Thank you for posting this mealy mouthed interview which totally contradicts other things she says even within the same sentences.

If you can make sense out of Palin's position on illegal immigration, you may want to explain it to her.

• According to Palin there are 12 million illegal immigrants in the US and deporting them is not possible economically as well as it is not a humane way of dealing with the issue. They should be made to follow rules and made to understand that legal immigrants should have the first preference of opportunities provided by this great country. If they follow the rules they can be treated fairly and equally in the country.

• Not having expressed her views on illegal immigration often, Sarah supports citizenship for illegal immigrants but feels there is no amnesty for the illegal immigrants. Priority should be given to the legal immigrants before granting opportunities to the illegal ones.

• She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.

53 posted on 09/27/2011 8:35:21 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
Sorry granny, but...


54 posted on 09/27/2011 8:40:24 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: Turtlepower

Because I am not putting all my faith in a single poll, the latest poll conforms with the general pattern of all recent previous polls which gives it a much higher probability of being correct.

There is ALWAYS a slight chance that any one poll could be an outlier, but the closer the polls mirror previous numbers the more likely it is that is is correct.


55 posted on 09/27/2011 8:44:13 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
So why do you hate Perry? He's more conservative than Palin.



More conservative?!? Are you kidding me? You just need to take off your



56 posted on 09/27/2011 8:45:46 AM PDT by Bikkuri
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To: trisham; DJ MacWoW; Virginia Ridgerunner; Liz

Forgot to ping you... getting to be a bad habit recently
(o.O)..


57 posted on 09/27/2011 8:49:24 AM PDT by Bikkuri
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma; Virginia Ridgerunner
First off, Palin is not a candidate at the moment. Second, Riley is a loudmouth he regularly attempts to intimidate people and drag the interview to where he wants it to go.

All i got out of that is that O'Reilly thinks he needs cheap lawn service and cheaper tarts.

Not exactly sure what part of all that was Sarah's.

Here's the deal, all the illegals gotta' go home first. Then we'll talk.

58 posted on 09/27/2011 8:49:40 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: TexasFreeper2009
Because I am not putting all my faith in a single poll, the latest poll conforms with the general pattern of all recent previous polls which gives it a much higher probability of being correct.

Translation: TexasFreeper2009 is engaging in wishful thinking.

59 posted on 09/27/2011 8:51:11 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Yes you are. Your whole premise for this thread is that Perry’s performance in the debates has not cost him politically. The old polls don’t meausure what impact the debates had on Perry. All the old data shows is that Perry was doing well at a point in time.

Things have changed, and all pundits agreed that Perry was abysmal in the debates. Therefore, new data is needed to measure if Perry will take a hit AFTER his debate performance.


60 posted on 09/27/2011 8:51:59 AM PDT by Turtlepower
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