Posted on 09/27/2011 6:34:00 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
This is a cautionary tale about reading too much into the early debate showings of any party's candidates, no matter how good or bad.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
Ok fine, but most of the polls mentioned in Real Clear Politics are old (pre FL debate). Since, the Florida debate was declared to be pretty bad for Perry, it will be important to see how the polls that you accept will look.
It’s misleading of you to suggest Perry hasn’t taken a hit, when you don’t have solid data to support your position. The only data we have at this point is from straw polls and such, which clearly suggest Perry is falling.
If you want to caution using straw polls that’s fine, but you can’t then say “scientific” polls support your conclusion when those polls aren’t current.
The correct conclusion is that there is some reason to believe, based on straw polls, that Perry is declining, but we won’t know for sure until more relevant poll data is acquired.
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"Underwhelming" is an understatement.
We get that crap from Hillary, Pelosi, Di-Fi, etc with the 'It's For The Children' nonsense.
Perry can go to Hades.
But your wrong.
If had looked closer at the polls you would have noticed that the latest scientific poll was taken after this latest debate and that the numbers hadn’t moved.
Perry was still at 28% Romney still at 21% exactly where they have been for the past month.
Now remember I did mention outliers... there is a slight possibility that the CNN poll released yesterday could be an outlier, we will know for sure once the next scientific poll of the race is released. But the fact that the poll yesterday so completely matched the trend for the past month strongly suggests that Perry took no significant damage to his support. BUT, if you look closely at the numbers you will see that Gingrich's support is showing some movement... which could mean that although Perry has not lost support, and Romney has not picked up any support, some of the undecided voters are starting to lean towards the 2nd tier candidates like Gingrich and Cain.
“there is a slight possibility that the CNN poll released yesterday could be an outlier, we will know for sure once the next scientific poll of the race is released.”
The fact is you are basing your entire arguement now on 1 single poll from CNN...CNN! You admit it could be an outlier, yet you continue to say with confidence, “You are wrong”. It’s hilarious that now Freepers use CNN polls as the source of truth. Typically, they deride them as biased.
You truly sound like a blind, Perry homer that just doesn’t want to hear any negative news about your boy. If you would have just said from the beginning, there is insufficient poll data to say for sure that Perry is taking a hit, then you would be fine. Instead, you’ve been defensive and sure of your position since the get-go, despite not having solid poll data to support you.
All we need is the good doc to announce, he’s dead Jim. Everyone else knows he is in free fall.
At this point in time there is an extremely high probability that Perry still stands in the high 20’s based on all the data that has been released to date. The data doesn't care what you or I think, it doesn't care what the news channels have to say, the data is the data.
Perry appears, based on the data to have a base of support in the high 20’s, Romney appears to have a base of support in the low 20’s. That's just what the data says.
I donated money to Herman Cain’s campaign last night.
good :) I would love to see Cain and Gingrich still around until at least Iowa. Since Bachmann is for sure going to stay in until she looses Iowa, at which time Cain and or Gingrich has a good chance of picking up her supporters.
So why do you hate Perry? He's more conservative than Palin.
“At this point in time there is an extremely high probability that Perry still stands in the high 20’s based on the single CNN poll that I’m putting all my confidence in.”
Fixed for you.
Just admit you are basing your views about “high probability” on a single poll, which you admit could be an outlier. You are the one who is projecting based upon your desires, rather than data.
Why can’t you just revise your position to say you don’t know for sure?
If you can make sense out of Palin's position on illegal immigration, you may want to explain it to her.
• According to Palin there are 12 million illegal immigrants in the US and deporting them is not possible economically as well as it is not a humane way of dealing with the issue. They should be made to follow rules and made to understand that legal immigrants should have the first preference of opportunities provided by this great country. If they follow the rules they can be treated fairly and equally in the country.
• Not having expressed her views on illegal immigration often, Sarah supports citizenship for illegal immigrants but feels there is no amnesty for the illegal immigrants. Priority should be given to the legal immigrants before granting opportunities to the illegal ones.
• She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.
Because I am not putting all my faith in a single poll, the latest poll conforms with the general pattern of all recent previous polls which gives it a much higher probability of being correct.
There is ALWAYS a slight chance that any one poll could be an outlier, but the closer the polls mirror previous numbers the more likely it is that is is correct.
So why do you hate Perry? He's more conservative than Palin.
Forgot to ping you... getting to be a bad habit recently
(o.O)..
All i got out of that is that O'Reilly thinks he needs cheap lawn service and cheaper tarts.
Not exactly sure what part of all that was Sarah's.
Here's the deal, all the illegals gotta' go home first. Then we'll talk.
Translation: TexasFreeper2009 is engaging in wishful thinking.
Yes you are. Your whole premise for this thread is that Perry’s performance in the debates has not cost him politically. The old polls don’t meausure what impact the debates had on Perry. All the old data shows is that Perry was doing well at a point in time.
Things have changed, and all pundits agreed that Perry was abysmal in the debates. Therefore, new data is needed to measure if Perry will take a hit AFTER his debate performance.
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