Posted on 09/24/2011 9:14:07 AM PDT by neverdem
If you don’t think ideological perceptions matter in American politics, you need read no further. If you do and you’re a Democrat, there’s something to worry about. Even as the terms of the political debate in Washington, in the eyes of many Democrats, have moved steadily to the right, the electorate is increasingly likely to see itself as ideologically closer to the Republican Party than to Democrats. Unless Obama and Democrats can find a solution to this riddle—and find one fast—they will be contesting the 2012 election on forbidding terrain.
In mid-2005, as disaffection with the Bush administration and the Republican Party was gathering momentum, the Pew Research Center asked American to place themselves and the political parties on a standard left-right ideological continuum. At that time, average voters saw themselves as just right of center and equidistant from the two political parties. Independents considered themselves twice as far away from the Republican Party as from the Democrats, presaging their sharp shift toward the Democrats in the 2006 mid-term election.
In August of this year, Pew posed a very similar question (note to survey wonks: Pew used a five-point scale, versus six in 2005), but the results were very different. Although average voters continue to see themselves as just right of center, they now place themselves twice as far away from the Democratic Party as from the Republicans. In addition, Independents now see themselves as significantly closer to the Republican Party, reversing their perceptions of six years ago.
There’s another difference as well. In 2005, Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of their own parties dovetailed with the perceptions of the electorate as a whole. Today, while voters as a whole agree with Republicans’ evaluation of their party as conservative, they disagree with Democrats, who on average see their party as moderate rather than liberal. So when Independents, who see themselves as modestly right of center, say that Democrats are too liberal, average Democrats can’t imagine what they’re talking about.
Compounding the problem, the American people are gradually polarizing. According to Gallup, twenty years ago, as Bill Clinton began his presidential campaign, self-described moderates formed the plurality of the electorate—43 percent; conservatives were 36 percent, liberals 17 percent. By the summer of 2011, the conservative share had risen to 41 percent and liberals to 21 percent, while moderates declined to 36 percent, surrendering their plurality status to conservatives. Because nearly all conservatives now vote for Republicans and liberals for Democrats, the share of the shrinking pool of moderates that Democrats need to build a majority is now larger than ever.
Another Gallup finding that should alert Democrats is the ongoing collapse of public confidence in government. A survey released earlier this week found that Americans now believe that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every dollar it spends, the highest estimate ever recorded. Twenty-five years ago, that figure stood at only 38 cents. While estimates of waste at the state and local level remain lower than for the federal level, they have also risen by double digits in recent decades.
Overall, it’s hard to avoid concluding that the ideological playing-field heading into 2012 is tilted against Democrats. This reality only deepens the strategic dilemma the White House now confronts. The conventional strategy for an incumbent is to secure the base before the general public gets fully engaged and then reach out to the swing voters whose decisions spell the difference between victory and defeat. By contrast, the Obama team spent most of 2011 in what turned out to be a failed effort to win over the Independent voters who deserted Democrats in droves last November, in the process alienating substantial portions of the base. To rekindle the allegiance and enthusiasm of core supporters, the president now finds himself having to draw sharp ideological lines, risking further erosion among Independents and even moderate Democrats. Tellingly, a number of at-risk Democratic senators up for reelection in 2012 have already refused to go along with key elements of the president’s recent proposals.
Granted, ideology isn’t everything. Political scientists have long observed that Americans are more liberal on particulars than they are in general—ideologically conservative but operationally liberal. (Surveys have shown majority support for most individual elements of the president’s jobs and budget packages.) And the Republicans could undermine their chances by nominating a presidential candidate who is simply too hard-edged conservative for moderates and Independents to stomach.
In the face of widespread skepticism and disillusion, it will be an uphill battle for Democrats to persuade key voting blocks that government can really make their lives better. But if they fail, the public will continue to equate public spending with waste, the anti-government message will continue to resonate, and Democrats will be in dire straits when heading into what is shaping up as a pivotal election.
William Galston is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing editor for The New Republic.
You know: mainstream, centrist, traditional American values.
From Left to right (1) being far left (10) being far right. With Republicans being (10), and Democrats being (4) Where do you position yourself on the scale? Our result show that more Americans feel that they are closer to a Democrat then a Republican.
Mainstreet voters are usually standing on the sewer cover.
I had a conversation with Galston once when he was the “families czar” during the Clinton administration. He was a sneering intellectual then, and he is a head-up-the-ass intellectual now. He apparently believes that by reducing the immorality of Democrat platforms to statistics, he can help develop a convincing strategy so that the Democrats’ murdering fascism will not look like it is. What lies can they possibly tell to dress up turds like wealth redistribution, death panels, homosexual indoctrination, religious persecution of our founding legal framework, and apologies for our past success under those principles and laws?
Moron.
Had you placed the Republicans at three from the extreme (7) as you did with the Democrats (4) I doubt those results would hold.
‘Scuse me!!??? the leftists have never HAD the political center!!
<—————————————MORE-————————— GOVERNMENT CONTROL -———————————LESS——————————>
Communist->Facist->Liberal->Democrat->Moderate->Republican->Conservative->Libertarian->Anarchist
Like this?
Pretty soon, there may be no political center. Middle of the road Republicans are run over repeatedly.
Many, many years ago, I registered (for the first time) as an independent. Although I sided with the left at the time, I was put off by the actions of the radicals during the ‘68 democrat convention. I knew things were changing. I just didn’t know, then, how much and how far it would go. The birth of my children, and my interest in learning about the education system began my long trek towards conservative sanity. The Roe decision in ‘73 further deepened the gulf between me and the left.
I began to realize that, sooner or later, what I knew personally about those deeply involved in the left wing, and what they believed, and what they wanted would HAVE to surface. The election of Obama was that final “brick” in the wall. And so, here it is. They are exposed. What I KNOW they never counted on, was the absolute horror of the American people when they were finally shown WHAT leftism IS, and what it means for the future of our kids and country.
Leftism, as we know it now, is no different from the leftism people experienced under Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and all the way back to Robespierre. It is evil, oppressive, destroys everything it touches. It has no loyalty, and it elevates none. It encourages hatred of the “other”- meaning those who disagree. It loathes the Constitution as a document giving governance to people that the left believes “incapable”. I celebrate those Americans who have awakened to this evil and now stand ready to fight it.
A party which includes Rudy Giuliani, Scott Brown, and Mitt Romney is not "far right" by any stretch of the imagination.
I'd be willing to bet that the average American doesn't have a clue as to what words like "leftism" and "liberalism, even "socialism" means.
What they do understand and it's important, is that Obama's policies are killing this country. They see the effects and I hope they vote accordingly. It's not really that important that they know what certain terminology is all about.
But my neighbor would scoff -- "If you don't consider Mitt Romney to be a knuckle-dragging Conservative, then that just shows how over-the-top and extremist the other Republicans have become!"
That is a skewed scale. Who is to the left of Demcrats?
Democrats are far left and should be a 1.
RINOs are about 6.
Pretty humorous - did you possibly pull that steaming pile out of a delusional Leftist propaganda mill?
‘To be fair we are going to ask the same questions to both the candidates. President Bush: What mistakes did you make in the first term, and what would you do to correct those mistakes?’ (ANSWER) ‘OK, Senator Kerry: What mistakes did President Bush make in his first term, and what would you do to correct those mistakes?
Democrat hopes rest with growing the underclass, uncontrolled immigration of massive low-IQ and low-educated populations into the US, legalizing the illegals and forced indoctrination of children in government schools.
On that score, they have grounds for optimism in the medium and long term, especially if the Republican Party continues to select open-borders advocates as leaders.
See how nice it is to have partisan media shills working for the Demwits 24/7? During governance, the Demwits always show their true colors. During election campaign some of their rhetoric is nuanced to look like its in the center where most voters live. This shill will help them look like they’re moderating and taking the sincere advice. Thanks neverdem.
Back in Franklin Roosevelt's day, segregated schools and Jim Crow laws were overwhelmingly Democrat positions, as most all elected officials in the old Confederacy, where such policies were standard, were Democrats.
Interesting that you mentioned "quotas limiting how many Jews could attend the more prestigious colleges and universities" in the same sentence with Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt himself, as an elite alumnus, was one of the chief architects of such a discriminitory quota at Harvard!
The national origins quotas for immigration, although directed against other groups considered undesirable (Italians, Slavs, other Eastern Europeans), could also be seen as anti-Semitic since Eastern European Jews were a significant component in the newer immigration of the post-1890 period.
There was also a lot of discrimination in the North in that era--I was once looking at some US News & World Report issues from 1948 and ran across an article about a New York law forbidding job discrimination on the basis of race--they wouldn't have passed the law if it hadn't been a common practice to discriminate.
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