Thanks.
Without knowing the orbital track, I’ve been thinking the last few days that odds were pretty good it would end up in the South Pacific...
Well, the orbital track I posted is from Friday afternoon. That’s the time frame when NASA says they SO FAR predict when it’s coming down.
When I back up the track, the orbit before the one I posted will take the UARS completely around the southern tip of South America, going nowhere near land, until it crosses eastern Africa at about 2:25pm Eastern. After it exits in north-central Africa near Libya, it’ll cross the Mediterranean, coming near Sicily and southern Italy and then into Eastern Europe. It will then pass into central Russia and over a lot of the ‘Stans’. It will cross Siberia and down the Korean Peninsula and over southern Japan at around 2:55pm Eastern.
After that, it’ll be over the South Pacific (as you thought) until it crosses into South America on the orbit I posted.
One thing to remember: until it gets closer to the actual re-entry time, NASA _SAYS_ they have no idea exactly WHEN it’ll fall. “Friday afternoon” is a fairly nebulous time-frame. Is it EARLY afternoon, LATE afternoon, or what? I just followed the time frame they said and showed the orbital track that will happen in the middle of the afternoon Eastern time in the US.