I totally agree w you about ‘08. Obama was a novelty w 24/7 media hype. People saw in him what they wanted to see, and there was an enthusiastic level of personal attachment. Plus, he could still utter his tired cliches w conviction because ‘hope and change’ hadn’t yet become a national punchline/the butt of a thousand jokes.
‘Charm’ is what would have carried him over once the hype faded. Now that people are used to having a ‘black’ president, and Obama’s promises have been reduced to, ‘it’s all Bush’s fault’, the lack of charm—plus the lousy speechifying—are coming home to roost. Hence, the fading poll numbers and increasing talk of a primary challenger.
There are those that disagree with me on this but I think the ‘issue’ here is Rasmussen and not Obama. Obama’s approval’s continue to sink. Every single poll in the world shows it (except Rasmussen) and every single bit of available evidence supports it (increasing criticism of Obama from dems, from the media, Obama becoming more shrill, talk of a primary challenge, campaigning to his base, horrible approval numbers in key battleground states etc).
The only morsel of data that show’s Obama remaining at the same approval as he was in 2009 is the Rasmussen poll. If you remember, Rasmussen was the first to show the drop (2008 - 2009). The white house went on the attack and suddenly Rasmussen’s numbers started looking like everyone elses. In my opinion, this was not a coincidence.
For Obama to win in 2012, things have to get considerably better for him. The public must by-in to the fact that he is doing a better/more effect job as president than he’s doing right now. As long as the economy does not improve, I find it highly unlikely for that dynamic to play out...