There are those that disagree with me on this but I think the ‘issue’ here is Rasmussen and not Obama. Obama’s approval’s continue to sink. Every single poll in the world shows it (except Rasmussen) and every single bit of available evidence supports it (increasing criticism of Obama from dems, from the media, Obama becoming more shrill, talk of a primary challenge, campaigning to his base, horrible approval numbers in key battleground states etc).
The only morsel of data that show’s Obama remaining at the same approval as he was in 2009 is the Rasmussen poll. If you remember, Rasmussen was the first to show the drop (2008 - 2009). The white house went on the attack and suddenly Rasmussen’s numbers started looking like everyone elses. In my opinion, this was not a coincidence.
For Obama to win in 2012, things have to get considerably better for him. The public must by-in to the fact that he is doing a better/more effect job as president than he’s doing right now. As long as the economy does not improve, I find it highly unlikely for that dynamic to play out...
Rasmussen is not conspiring to keep Obama's approval numbers looking better than they are. This is the kind of lunacy you'd read on InfoWars or something. It seems to me that you just don't understand the difference between Rasmussen's polling and most others.
Rasmussen uses a Likely Voter screen all the time, most other polls to include big ones like Gallup do not. Likely Voters are not anywhere near as volatile as "adults" or even "registered voters". Early in his presidency, Rasmussen showed a drop in Likely Voters supporting Obama. The other polls using samples of just adults showed Obama dropping much slower. We have now reached the point where Likely Voters opinions are fairly set in stone, but "adults" have turned negative against Hussein. This is why Rasmussen is relatively stable, but other polls including Gallup show a steep decline in Obama's approval numbers.
That is some excellent analysis. Something is definitely up with this poll. Rest assured, it will ‘self-correct’ as we get closer to the election. Meanwhile, all indicators are that Obama is far less popular than Ras would have us believe.