[reed13k]

Key here is that if enough become disaffected with access to arms it will result in a coup with one of two results: long civil war as factions fight to gain control likely with china stepping in, but no major policy/govt changes, as dictator OR someone arises with some common sense to unit the faction as a military junta and approaches the south for reconciliation.

[reed13k]

Dang my comma was off should read :
“...gain control, likely...” not “...stepping in , but...”

[Mark]

OR someone arises with some common sense to unite the faction as a military junta and approaches the south for reconciliation.

Here he comes to save the day! A community organizer on the way!