Palin is what she is....a communication and journalism major.
She knows she can't have the nomination and she's missing 3 huge target audiences....blacks, the youth vote and hispanics.
Naw....Palin wants a lucrative media job not the job of President.
First of all, polls at this stage of the game are laughable, regardless of who they say is ahead; I think it is wise to ignore ALL polls, even ones that validate candidates I like. Polls at this stage in 2007 gave McCain virtually zero chance, and it was basically common knowledge that Hillary was going to be the Dem nominee. Polls are wasted effort except in that they are manipulated and used to manipulate expectations. The smart person takes all polls with very large servings of salt.
Second -- Ah ... er, I know this is strictly anecdotal. But when my formerly liberal sis-in-law went to see Palin in Nevada a few years ago, she expected to see mostly baby-boomer and older folks there. She was very much surprised to see a whole lotta young people there.
Palin, if she runs, will be the ONE candidate who will inspire independents and crossovers to vote for her in droves. Her political approach transcends conventional R vs. D contexts, and that is why her appeal, should she run, would bring in many "Palin Democrats" and scores of young folks who recognize and respect someone who actually IS WILLING to buck the establishment.