Democrat pollster PPP just released poll of likely NY-09 voters showing Bob Turner leading Weprin by 47%-41% (with 4% for the Socialist Workers Party candidate and 8% undecided) despite a Dem turnout that approximates that of 2008 (Obama got 55% in the CD in 2008 and 55% of the sample reported having voted for Obama). And the internals are even worse for the Democrats: Turner gets 72% of the vote among those for whom Israel is very important, Turner carries the Jewish vote handily (even as a Catholic running against an Orthodox Jew), and Obama’s approval rating in the district is an abyssmal 31%. We need to keep working hard to help Turner across the finish line, but it looks increasingly as if we’re going to win this race tomorrow. Here’s the poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/republican-bob-turner-is-poised-to-pull-a-huge-upset-in-the-race-to-replace-anthony-weiner-as-the-congressman-from-new-yorks.html
Fingers crossed.
This is just shocking, far more so than what happened in upstate New York a few months back.
Wow, 31% approval is a titanically crappy # for Obama to have in that distinct!
I wouldn’t have guessed that even the most GOP seat in the state would have him quite that low let alone this one.
Something like a perfect storm going on.
I hope it survives redistricting, I’ve been eager to see us compete in this seat since Bush got 44% in 2004.