>> “Since people betting real money know she isn’t.” <<
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Lots of people ‘know’ things that are not so.
How did you bet on Hale Bopp?
you have to remember that people on Intrade are ALLOWED and even encouraged to trade with inside information. Don’t you think if Palin were going to run, that each and every person that had that inside information would be taking out a loan on their children to bet as much as possible at 20 to 1 odds ?