[Carling]

I'll add that she is also going to need help from the “establishment” GOP that she seems to have chosen as her primary talking point in terms of feet on the ground.

Unless, of course, she is going to run as a 3rd-party candidate, which I won't rule out. I actually find it more likely that she takes that approach than she declares as a GOP candidate. If people want anti-establishment candidates, Ron Paul has already declared for the race. I don't support him, but I don't recall him campaigning for John McLame and fundraising for him in the AZ GOP primary.

[GunRunner]

I don't believe she'll run third party, and I'm not altogether convinced she's running at all. She's a true political talent that should be utilized, as she did in the 2010 elections.

But Palin isn't palatable to a great swath of the country. If you've hung around non-political folk, a lot of them really can't stand her. The family issues, the accent, the reality show, the gaffes, the interviews where she comes off as clueless, etc. Whether it's fair or not ignores the reality.

Whether or not anyone admits it, Perry will probably win the nomination because he's acceptable to enough of the Tea Party and enough of the establishment to bridge the gap.