Maybe you don't understand how campaigns work? Other than hinting that she might have the fire in the belly to run, she has done absolutely nothing to prepare for an actual campaign. Zilch. She has no infrastructure in place, no state organizations ready to roll, no fundraising operation in place, etc. Yes, yes, I know you think she's going to run an "unconventional campaign", but I can tell you from having worked around this stuff my entire adult life that she will need to do all the retail politicking and organizational stuff every other candidate has to do. Relying on Facebook posts and hoping hit and run bus stops will garner her high profile media coverage after the first few weeks is a pipe dream.
I have no idea what your crowd bases your conclusion on, except perhaps wishful thinking.
I only speak for myself, but knowing something about this stuff is enough for me to conclude she is not running. I thought she would after the 2008 loss, I thought she was the natural candidate for this cycle, I fully supported her for the longest time. But then it became clear she was not doing the actual hard work it requires to be a successful presidential candidate. Reality TV and showing up various places to steal the spotlight from others just doesn't cut it.
If I were you, I'd let it rest for a couple of weeks. She's said that she's going to inform the public of her intentions toward the latter half of this month. You don't have much longer to wait.
You know you are right, I have no way of knowing. Perhaps she plans to attempt something so "unconventional" that I simply don't see it. I don't buy this "unconventional" campaign stuff, and I find it impossible to believe serious advisers would lead her to believe it would work - but it is possible she is an echo chamber of "yes" people who convince her this could work.
I'd have loved to see her run a serious presidential campaign. I hoped for that very thing, but instead she seems to have just squandered much of the conservative support she had by teasing this "may or may not" run stuff for far too long. Republicans have simply grown sick of it and as a result her negatives continue rising within the party you argue she wants to represent as a presidential candidate.
Come on, Longbow. You're here every day. Surely you must have seen all of the references and links to Organizing4Palin on the site? They have chapters up and running in all 50 states, and in some states like Iowa, every county. Her campaign infrastructure is already in place, so that's a non-issue.
As far as donations go, on the day that she announces, she's going to set a fundraising record. She's going to get millions of donations in small amounts, right up to the legally allowable contribution.
She's also unafraid of being out-spent by her competitors. She's been out-spent in every race she's ever run in, but what got her the votes was her message and her character. That beats hundreds of slick TV ads every time, when it's genuine. And they don't come more genuine than Sarah Palin.
Sounds to me like you're trying to evaluate what she's doing through the old programming of the status quo, and not figuring in the revolutionary time period we're in, and how well she represents that. Underestimate her ability to break the mold and win, at your own risk. She was made for such a time as this.