Sowell’s analysis is spot on but incomplete. The best economic analysts I’ve been reading have made the point that this isn’t a standard 20th century “recession”, nor is it really like the Depression, although it feels that way. Rather, this more favorably compares to a 19th century “contraction” which occurred for 16 years in the late 1880’s. By Contraction is meant that the economy is in fact shrinking; thus for example, we’re seeing far lower employment rates expressed as a percentage of eligible working population holding jobs. That rate is down to something like 63%. Typically it runs in the high 80’s. At the same time, we’re seeing a serious “wealth” contraction with something like 1/3 of the residential real estate market under water with no hope for recovery. Housing hasn’t really ever bottomed out.
I “think” (meaning I’m not sure) the problem may well be twofold, 1) too many are being paid far too much to not work and 2) horrible trade policy has incentivized the offshoring of jobs.
There being little in the way of political talent in the offing, I don’t expect any speedy resolution to this mess. For all practical purposes, this is the “new normal”.
Of necessity. This is his column which is limited to certain space. He has written extensively on economic matters with many books filled with analysis including "contraction".
I think (meaning Im not sure) the problem may well be twofold, 1) too many are being paid far too much to not work and 2) horrible trade policy has incentivized the offshoring of jobs.
There being little in the way of political talent in the offing, I dont expect any speedy resolution to this mess. For all practical purposes, this is the new normal.
Rich21IE, you're very close. Even Obama' representatives have said that recessions due to financial crises take very long to resolve. IIRC, the average is about 7 years. Bank closures and bank holidays were very common during the Great Depression. The cause was bad debt just like the subprime mess and housing bubble caused this great recession.
Obama took a bad situation and is making it worse with Keynesian deficit spending and more regulations! Add in expensive energy and food. We're going nowhere fast.