IF Romney takes NH, Bachmann has lost two states. If it's a contest between Romney and Perry for SC, Perry wins. It could be a horse race in FL, but then, maybe not.
The scenario looks good for Perry.
Rudy also tried skipping the early races and focus on Florida. The results? Crash and burn. By the time Florida rolls around, the voters there are already quite cognizant of how you've done so far. If you're a turkey, they'll treat you as one.
Ignoring Iowa is a tacit admission that you're not a strong candidate. Yeah, he's strong in NH. He's sank more money in that state than the Stimulus has. He'll carry it, and that will be his first and only win. He won't win SC, Iowa or Florida over Perry. Bachmann might have a thin swing at Iowa, but that will be the highwater mark of her candidacy.
I know this is heresy, and I denounce myself for saying it, but Bachmann is a VP candidate, only in the race to be Romney's conservative beard in the event Romney wins the nomination. She knows perfectly well that she's not going to top the ticket, but that Romney's odds were actually pretty good. Romney has zero appeal to the red states, wheras she has a deep appeal.
Since Romney is basically running the McCain 'last man standing' 2008 playbook, it stands to reason that he's going to need a strong conservative wingman to close the deal with the base voters. A problem that neither Perry, nor Palin, for that matter, have. Of course, Perry or Palin are popular governors, and are very viable top ticket contenders. Bachmann isn't. My $0.02, anyway.
The Iowa caucii are a huge waste of time. They've never been an important factor in the nomination. If there's any demographic less symbolic of the general electoaqte than that of NH it is Iowa. In this one detail...and this alone...I agree with Romney. Iowa's a waste of resources.