Posted on 08/27/2011 9:51:47 AM PDT by Rennes Templar
Up until now (Friday evening) Irene has been very similar to 1985 hurricane Gloria, though a bit weaker. But the level of hype—because of its projected path near all of the I-95 major cities—is similar to that of 26 years ago.
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Irene has put on a remarkably similar show. Within the limits of forecasting error, Irene’s projected path makes it was impossible to rule out a major disaster. But, as a dangerous Category 3 storm within two days of land, something similar to what happened to Gloria occurred. Instead of going slightly off course, the power of her winds dropped markedly, at least as measured by hurricane hunter aircraft.
Because it is prudent to not respond to every little tropical cyclone twitch (such as Gloria’s jog or Thursday’s wind drop), the Thursday evening forecast was virtually unchanged, the Internet went thermonuclear, and the Weather Channel’s advertising rates skyrocketed. From that point on, it became all Irene, all the time. With this level of noise, the political process has to respond with full mobilization. Hype begets hype.
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As I complete this, there’s another tropical depression out in the Atlantic, and a couple more on the way in the very near future. Suppose one of these takes a similar path, except that it improbably threads the needle of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and makes landfall immediately to the west of New York City as a Category 3 storm. How many people will the hyping of Irene have killed? That’s how Hurricane Hype followed by Hurricane Insanity leads to hurricane death.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
I was in Wilma and the media coverage of Wilma was not 1/100th of what Irene is getting. Maybe Floridians aren’t whiny crybabies and they clean up and move on.
Back then people weren’t aware of what was coming until it was too late. This is a good book if you ever want to read stories from some of the people that went through it.
http://www.amazon.com/Great-Hurricane-1938-Cherie-Burns/dp/087113893X
No, it’s not a cup of tea, but you don’t whine, you get to work, clean up and move on, and thank God you still have a home to clean up.
Been there and done that. I have an empty lot next door where my neighbor had to bulldoze his home after Rita.
My point was that people need to be thankful that at the last minute some dry air was entrained in the storm which weakened it from an intensifying Cat 3 to a Cat 1 when it made landfall.
I was in Wilma too, it wasn’t that bad. Sure there were lights down in Miami, trees down, debris in the streets, power was out but destroyed, not even close. Wilma did the most damage in the Florida Keys from Islamorada to Key West. All that water that was pushed into Florida Bay had to come back, and come back it did. After the storm was up in Miami the entire Gulfside of the Keys flooded all the way to the Overseas Hwy and in some places it ran across it and flooded places on the ocean side.
Water was 4-5’ deep in most homes on the Gulfside. Many thought the storm was over, were out driving around, cleaning up only to turn around and see the water come rushing in. Did the report that on the news day after day? No, they did not. They didn’t report that every home and business in 1/2 of the Keys, 75 miles, were flooded. I imagine people in the Keys were too busy cleaning up, trying to get things back to normal and didn’t have time to cry to reporters.
I fuss when they get it wrong because they usually do. One time they said it was going up the west coast and woke up wind and it had done a u turn and was headed for us. I almost lost my boat. I also don’t like to do a hurricane prep, evacuate, shut down the business, do all the prep and nothing happens. They jumped the gun again. I can’t stand NOAA. They are wrong as much as they are right.
Here’s a tip from a Floridian—look at the satellite photos of the storm, if it doesn’t have a clearly defined eye and a good full circular pattern there’s a good chance it’s not going to be a monster. But it’s still good to be prepared because these things are notoriously tricky.
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Exactly
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