When you have Obama getting 40 pct of the vote it will be pretty hard to get to 270 EV’s. He has to defend FL which is gone NM will could go either way, He should spent all his time in MI,IN,PA,OH,WI,and hope like hell the rest of the country is insane again. Ron Paul could give him a run for his money for God sake, any breathing conservative kills Obama unless the real Messiah comes first.
Barring a collapse, the GOP will retake Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.
From there, all we really need are either one big state or a couple of small ones. To me, the most attractive targets are: Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
Other GOP possibilities include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa.
Again though, I think the tightest races are likely to be those Southwestern swing states. Win those (Rubio nomination perhaps?) and we recapture the Presidency.