Barring a collapse, the GOP will retake Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.
From there, all we really need are either one big state or a couple of small ones. To me, the most attractive targets are: Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
Other GOP possibilities include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa.
Again though, I think the tightest races are likely to be those Southwestern swing states. Win those (Rubio nomination perhaps?) and we recapture the Presidency.
I agree with your assessment the nominee of the GOP will probably get real close to 400 EV’s and that is a winner.
If the GOP wins the ones you listed, I am pretty sure that would win it. we might need one other state to get over the top. in 2004, Bush won with that list. I think Iowa went Red, too, if I recall correctly, but a combination of OH and FL with VA and NC should be enough in 2012. I suspect NH is a lock, and Iowa should be if the economy stays down.