[alancarp]

Time for my morning look at the track... albeit a little later than I’d planned. First off, here are the last several reported eye positions:

1700 THR 27.0N 77.3W
2000 THR 27.7N 77.4W
2300 THR 28.3N 77.3W
0200 FRI 28.7N 77.3W
0500 FRI 29.3N 77.2W
0800 FRI 30.0N 77.3W
1100 FRI 30.7N 77.3W

Okay, I think we can be pretty well assured that the beast is moving NORTH. A couple of days ago (post #416), I opined that if there was any chance of missing the Carolinas, it had better be moving a little right (east) of due north by the time it passed Daytona Beach (29.2°).

Well, technically it was (77.2W then)... but as we see since, that was just a ‘wobble’, and Irene has steamed straight north since then and is now parallel to Brunswick, GA on that same straight north tack... well over 100 miles further north.

My guesses from this:
1. It’s still not turning as I type this, though probably will start to do so soon.
2. It’s going a little west of the official track - currently Cape Lookout.
3. I’m thinking Atlanta Beach, NC is in trouble.
4. Irene is about 250 miles to Morehead City... landfall at current speed is roughly 17 hours away - before dawn Saturday morning.

Beyond the NC landfall, I have no ideas — the interaction with that much land might be a Godsend for the NE Corridor due to substantial weakening.

[alancarp]

(oh yeah - now that we're on the new thread, that was referring to post 416 on The original hurricane Irene thread.)

[txhurl]

Big rain band about to be slung into NC.... I’d expect twisters from it.

[Moose4]

Latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft observation put the eye at 77 degrees 29 minutes west, a tick shy of 77.5W. It hasn’t started the NNE arc yet. Atlantic Beach and Morehead City are still squarely in Irene’s sights. After that, who knows.

I understand that the major media is going to obsess over NYC and New Jersey getting hit with what will probably be a strong tropical storm, since 10+ million people live there and the media organizations are headquartered there. But not long after landfall, this thing (if it stays near the forecasted track) is going to plow over Tidewater Virginia (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News, Chesapeake, Suffolk, up as far as Williamsburg and then onto the Delmarva), and there’s almost two million people in its path in that urban area alone. And hardly anything is being said. That worries me. I’ve got a friend in Poquoson who lives about 50 yards from the York River, he says he’s ridden hurricanes out there before but I don’t know if he’s ever taken a near-direct hit from one.

}:-)4