Latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft observation put the eye at 77 degrees 29 minutes west, a tick shy of 77.5W. It hasn’t started the NNE arc yet. Atlantic Beach and Morehead City are still squarely in Irene’s sights. After that, who knows.
I understand that the major media is going to obsess over NYC and New Jersey getting hit with what will probably be a strong tropical storm, since 10+ million people live there and the media organizations are headquartered there. But not long after landfall, this thing (if it stays near the forecasted track) is going to plow over Tidewater Virginia (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News, Chesapeake, Suffolk, up as far as Williamsburg and then onto the Delmarva), and there’s almost two million people in its path in that urban area alone. And hardly anything is being said. That worries me. I’ve got a friend in Poquoson who lives about 50 yards from the York River, he says he’s ridden hurricanes out there before but I don’t know if he’s ever taken a near-direct hit from one.
}:-)4
Latest Stormpulse track based on model averages has moved the storm about 30 miles to the east, putting it coming ashore between Cape Hatteras and Morehead City, moving across the sound and marshes, then moving back out to sea, passing Virginia Beach about 25 miles to the east.
This path keeps it 10-15 miles offshore all the way up New Jersey, then coming ashore directly on top of West Islip on Long Island, putting it 30 miles east of JFK Airport, or 40 miles west of Manhattan.
Holy smokes. I lived in Newport News for 6 years, when I was assigned to Langley AFB (elevation 6'). Prayers up for all in Irene's path.
Rights on all points... which makes me think of these add-ons:
1. As time is marching on here, Camp Lejuene is coming into more and more risk since Irene is still not turning. Also MCAS Cherry Point at Havelock, although it’s 15-20 miles inland.
2. The south-facing Emerald Isle barrier Island is now in SEVERE risk... storm surge overwash is LIKELY to the east of the eye.