Buoy 41004 SE of Charleston SC:
webcam on Indian Beach, NC... should be within 10-20 miles of landfall.
Specific/Relevant NOAA Weather Buoys that will be closest to the path up to the point of initial landfall:
41004 (41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC)
41037 (27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach)
41036 (Onslow Bay Outer)
BFTN7 (Beaufort, NC)
CLKN7 (Cape Lookout)
Buoy 41010 was passed by Irene this morning. Wave heights went from a low of around 9 feet to a peak of 31.5. Maximum wind gusts: 64.1 kts... minimal hurricane force. I *think* the closest approach was about 72 miles.
Time for my morning look at the track... albeit a little later than I’d planned. First off, here are the last several reported eye positions:
1700 THR 27.0N 77.3W
2000 THR 27.7N 77.4W
2300 THR 28.3N 77.3W
0200 FRI 28.7N 77.3W
0500 FRI 29.3N 77.2W
0800 FRI 30.0N 77.3W
1100 FRI 30.7N 77.3W
Okay, I think we can be pretty well assured that the beast is moving NORTH. A couple of days ago (post #416), I opined that if there was any chance of missing the Carolinas, it had better be moving a little right (east) of due north by the time it passed Daytona Beach (29.2°).
Well, technically it was (77.2W then)... but as we see since, that was just a ‘wobble’, and Irene has steamed straight north since then and is now parallel to Brunswick, GA on that same straight north tack... well over 100 miles further north.
My guesses from this:
1. It’s still not turning as I type this, though probably will start to do so soon.
2. It’s going a little west of the official track - currently Cape Lookout.
3. I’m thinking Atlanta Beach, NC is in trouble.
4. Irene is about 250 miles to Morehead City... landfall at current speed is roughly 17 hours away - before dawn Saturday morning.
Beyond the NC landfall, I have no ideas — the interaction with that much land might be a Godsend for the NE Corridor due to substantial weakening.
Buoy 41004 SE of Charleston SC: