I love it when a plan comes together.
Posted on 08/25/2011 12:43:08 PM PDT by Sarabaracuda
President Obama continues to lead all named Republicans in early polling on the 2012 race for the White House, but the numbers suggest a competitive race may be possible.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows the President earning 43% of the vote if Texas Governor Rick Perry is the GOP nominee. Perry attracts support from 40%. Ten percent (10%) say they’d prefer some other candidate while seven percent (7%) are not sure.
If Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the GOP candidate, the president leads 43% to 39%. In that match-up, 12% would prefer some other candidate and seven percent (7%) are not sure.
With former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as his opponent, the president leads 46% to 38%. In an Obama-Romney contest, eight percent (8%) would look for a third party option while nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The match-up surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted August 17-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Perry leads the race for the GOP nomination by double digits. However, it’s worth noting that the 2008 nominee, John McCain, never led in national polling until the end of December in 2007. The frontrunner for the nomination often polls better than other candidates in match-ups against an incumbent president.
Data released earlier shows the President leading Congressman Ron Paul by a single point and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin by double digits.
The previous round of match-ups showed the president leading Perry by five and Bachmann by seven. At that time, Romney held a one-point lead over Obama.
Perry leads Obama by 69 percentage points among Republicans. Bachmann leads by 61 among GOP voters and Romney by 59. The president leads all three among unaffiliated voters. However, the president’s support among unaffiliateds ranges from 41% to 44% and a quarter of unaffiliateds remain either undecided or interested in a third party option.
A Generic Republican leads the president by five percentage points. One of the best measures of a president’s prospects for re-election is his Job Approval rating. Recently, the president’s approval has held steady in the low-to-mid 40s, a sign of potential vulnerability. However, it is very early in the election cycle and there is plenty of time for the president’s numbers to improve (or possibly to decline). In either case, as election day approaches, the president’s share of the vote is likely to be very close to his Job Approval rating.
Match-ups for each candidate were conducted on separate nights as part of the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Why is Rasmussen polling adults not likely voters? He usually polls likely voters. The numbers for Obama using likely voters must be REALLY bad.
Because, for example, the 10% that says they want some other candidate in the Perry v. Obama matchup are people who plan to ultimately vote GOP but prefer another GOP candidate other than Perry at this time.
“43% is crazy! Who in the hell?”
No, NOT “crazy” at all.
The nation is very divided and it’s getting worse. The national cohort of “takers” is growing in size, while that cohort of “producers” is relatively stagnant, even in decline in places.
Remember that 43% is lower than the 47% figure representing the percentage of Americans who don’t even pay taxes any more.
If anything, we can expect Obama’s numbers to _increase_ as the election nears.
Even with the best candidate that the Republicans can offer, I predict the margin of victory in 2012 (popular vote) will be no more than a few percentage points — say, a 52%-48% final tally. Again, this is because of deep divisions in the American psyche, and also reflects the changing demographics of the nation. The “America” that elected Ron Reagan in 1980 _doesn’t exist any more_. A large number of the voters who voted for him have died off.
Even Sarah Palin isn’t going to change this (and she is my #1 choice). It’s going to be a hard, hard fight.
Just sayin’....
Lol...no, they don’t believe the act...they find her manipulative and phony. Your mileage may vary.
“It isn’t just these people. Look at the polls. Obama is near even with republicans. I don’t understand why anyone would want him re-elected.”
Something about your comment brings to mind the famous quote attributed to Pauline Kael (film critic for the New Yorker magazine), who said she couldn’t understand how Nixon could have been elected, because “I don’t know anybody who voted for him”....
Just sayin....
Well then that 50 or so percentage points of people deserve misery and starvation then, which by the way with Obama is coming. Not bragging but I probably have an IQ at least 30 points above the average Obama mouth breather, have numerous businesses the IRS does not know about and can not only design software but rebuild a small block Chevy. I will fine as will my family. 1/2 of Americans are sheep, fat, lazy, covetous led around by their pubic hairs and really do deserve to suffer. Most of those movies like "The Road" and "The Book of Eli" coule really happen, the first calamity and 2/3 of Americans will die quicker than farm raised minnows in a warm bucket of water.
Most folks cannot live without their cable TV for 1 day let alone, plant a garden for subsistence, fix a generator or run a small business with the guile that NO tax man can cometh. Most of black America will be first, 1/2 shot in the head as they slither out of the inner cities and tangle with the steroid enhanced local Bubba cops, the other 1/2 can't wipe their backside without their case worker and will perish. The only people left in our tattered war torn Republic will be members of the military, survivalist types like me not afraid to put down a looter or thief, and few dolts lucky enough to find enough spam and pork and beans to survive. Most of the urban Ikea Class, the Vampire Class, the white suburban Cheesecake Factory eating slobs.... gone.
That is very unfair. Nobody is saying they won’t vote for Perry especially a FREEPER. It just won’t be an enthusiastic vote.
43% my azz.
I haven't voted for anybody enthusiastically, since Reagan.
Actually me either...
I don’t know about you, but I’ll crawl over hot coals to vote for Perry if he’s the nominee.
In fact, in every Presidential election, since 1984, I’ve voted AGAINST somebody.
The Demoncrats are going to have to get a third candidate to run.
“I haven’t voted for anybody enthusiastically, since Reagan.”
Agree except that I voted enthusiastically for mccain/PALIN. I would gladly vote for her again. But more than that, I want to vote for the GOPer that I think is going to beat 0bama.
I love it when a plan comes together.
What do you mean? They had a Maoist, a Stalinist, a Marxist, a Trotskyite, an Alinskyite, and a follower of Cloward-Piven. Don't know how the other four riff-raff got in.
17% are supposedly undecided or for someone else. That would be “independents” (i.e. idiots who aren’t paying attention 95% of the time). Obama has lost a huge portion of independents.
If you think Sarah is going to be universally accepted in a head to head against Zero, I don’t think so. She will have to reintroduce herself and overcome her negatives with enough voters beyond we conservatives. It’s no slam dunk. Once a candidate is chosen, most voters will judge when they go head to head in the first debate. Until then, it’s probably useless to speculate.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.