Obama 43% Perry 40% (Mittens down by 8)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 24, 2011

[Sarabaracuda]

President Obama continues to lead all named Republicans in early polling on the 2012 race for the White House, but the numbers suggest a competitive race may be possible.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows the President earning 43% of the vote if Texas Governor Rick Perry is the GOP nominee. Perry attracts support from 40%. Ten percent (10%) say they’d prefer some other candidate while seven percent (7%) are not sure.

If Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the GOP candidate, the president leads 43% to 39%. In that match-up, 12% would prefer some other candidate and seven percent (7%) are not sure.

With former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as his opponent, the president leads 46% to 38%. In an Obama-Romney contest, eight percent (8%) would look for a third party option while nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The match-up surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted August 17-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Perry leads the race for the GOP nomination by double digits. However, it’s worth noting that the 2008 nominee, John McCain, never led in national polling until the end of December in 2007. The frontrunner for the nomination often polls better than other candidates in match-ups against an incumbent president.

Data released earlier shows the President leading Congressman Ron Paul by a single point and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin by double digits.

The previous round of match-ups showed the president leading Perry by five and Bachmann by seven. At that time, Romney held a one-point lead over Obama.

Perry leads Obama by 69 percentage points among Republicans. Bachmann leads by 61 among GOP voters and Romney by 59. The president leads all three among unaffiliated voters. However, the president’s support among unaffiliateds ranges from 41% to 44% and a quarter of unaffiliateds remain either undecided or interested in a third party option.

A Generic Republican leads the president by five percentage points. One of the best measures of a president’s prospects for re-election is his Job Approval rating. Recently, the president’s approval has held steady in the low-to-mid 40s, a sign of potential vulnerability. However, it is very early in the election cycle and there is plenty of time for the president’s numbers to improve (or possibly to decline). In either case, as election day approaches, the president’s share of the vote is likely to be very close to his Job Approval rating.

Match-ups for each candidate were conducted on separate nights as part of the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

[Jim Scott]

I am thrilled that Perry is losing too. I can’t wait for Sarah to announce. People will be saying, “Perry who?”

I'm a Palin supporter. I remain ambivalent about Rick Perry until I've see him face some fair but tough interviews and learn more about him than I know, today. However, if Sarah Palin doesn't run or does and is defeated in the primaries by Perry, I'll vote for the Republican candidate. The recent polls show Sarah Palin at a low point with supposed Republican voters but like many conservatives, I've grown highly skeptical of polls because they can be so easily skewed and often are wrong. There are always a ton of variables to contend with when looking at the possible outcome of the (GOP) primary elections that are 5 months off. Even if the polls were favorable to Palin, I would be (a) happier but, (b) just as skeptical.

Like many FReepers, I believe that America cannot afford another four years of Obama. In fact, the thought of a second-term Obama with no concerns about re-election really frightens me. America needs bold, decisive leadership to extricate us from the ravages of Obama's socialist experiment. A RINO like Romeney is about as far from that as you can get so I welcome his fall in popularity - if it holds. I also hope that Sarah Palin decides not to be scared off by polls and establishment Republicans nattering that she's 'too conservative to be elected'. Palin, via personal appearances and well-done TV ads can overcome the MSM's attempts to 'demonize' her and make her unpopular for really no reason except the fact that she's a conservative Christian that loves her family and her country. She'll do it with personal appeal (like Reagan) and common sense, logical plans for turning around the U.S. economy, if she's elected. Sarah Palin carries that ineffable quality of charisma which can do a lot to offset the medias relentless attempts to marginalize her as a political force. However, Palin is a political force and if she runs, she can win. She'll certainly have my vote. Now, if only Scott Rasmussen would call me.

[Zhang Fei]

That's why I've maintained, and will still maintain that Obama is going to be extremely difficult to beat, regardless of which GOPer goes forward. Poll after poll shows Americans still... after some 945 days into Obama's administration.. blame Bush for the weak economy. And it's the economy upon which they'll base their vote next year. Obama doesn't have to actually find solutions to problems; he only needs to appear to be "trying" to do so.

FDR won 4 terms despite saddling us with the biggest welfare state ponzi scheme we have today (not to mention providing the inspiration for even more welfare state ponzi schemes) and unnecessarily prolonging the Great Depression with additional big government schemes. Reagan won against Carter because he was a great politician and Carter was a lousy one. Obama is a great politician - his skill with a teleprompter is legendary, and he definitely interviews better than any of the candidates on offer from the GOP. Running against him isn't going to be any easier than running against FDR. It stinks that we don't have anyone with Reagan's combination of wit, charisma and gravitas.

[Republican Wildcat]

It’s not just that she’s that far behind him - it’s the fact that she is only candidate against whom he gets to 50%, and also the only one that is well known.

[Parley Baer]

It appears that there is still too many people still stuck on stupid going by the poll.

[Farnsworth]

I hope your right on Romney.
I would have to hold my nose and take a barf bag with me if I was forced to vote for him.

Perry is a moderate too, but I think he would be better than Mitt

[GoCards]

Young and women and one skinny dude that looked like he just smoked one... lol

I dont want to get in the mindset of thinking “I dont know anyone who voted for Obama” My circle, you cant find a supporter but ????

[Farnsworth]

You shouldn’t be, Perry is the only one that has a chance to beat Obama. While I like Sarah too, she has been rendered unelectable by the media. Bachmann also.

[Zhang Fei]

I don’t believe Americans saw Roosevelt as putting forth a ponzi scene. I believe they saw him as someone who was doing something to bring America back from the brink of destruction. You can argue all you want whether his policies prolonged the depression but millions of Americans believed they were necessary and people were working again. Obama has done nothing that has put people back to work.

Unemployment got worse under FDR. But Americans blamed Hoover. And the GOP. Just as today, Americans blame Bush, and the GOP.

[Vigilanteman]

You are correct. I've talked to a lot of people who lived though the FDR era. Some, like my late father, saw through the ruse and hated FDR with a purple passion. More saw him as a champion and savior for the poor, doing what had to be done to pull America back from the depths of economic calamity. This is the model which ObaMao no doubt wants to follow.

However, I think the more comparable model is Jimmy Carter. Americans, in general, did not hate him. They generally saw him as a likable fellow, too detached from the harsh realities in which they lived and in way over his head. Any Republican probably would have beat him. Reagan, however, beat him big because he articularted a clear vision and optimism to America.

Even then, it wasn't quite the 45 state cakewalk which history records. Many southerners (perhaps like today's African Americans) saw Carter as a source of regional pride-- the only president which they elected since Woodrow Wilson. I'm excluding LBJ, because he was seen as a Texan opportunist, not a southerner. Then there was a John Anderson factor-- Reagan was disliked by many of the RINO wing. Reagan would have still won by more than 330 votes had every Anderson vote gone to Carter but, as the map below shows, it wouldn't have affected only RINO country.

(Green states would have swung from Reagan to Carter if EVERY Anderson vote had gone to Carter.)

[Hawthorn]

>> Historically, Rasmussen has been the best <<

True enough. But something is seriously wrong with any survey that shows Paul running so well against Big Ø. Probably due to the very small samples (ca. 333 respondents) that are run each night.

Or maybe Ras's website has been hacked by the Paulistas. Stranger things have happened!

[CA Conservative]

Despite Carter’s unpopularity, Reagan was down big in the polls right up until election day.

That's actually a misperception that has been corrected numerous times on this forum, complete with sources and graphs. Reagan and all of the other candidates were down big to Carter from Dec 1979 to March 1980, but that was largely due to the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. By April, Reagan had largely caught up to Carter, and actually passed him after the GOP convention. From April to November, Carter and Reagan were rarely more than 1-2 points outside the MoE.

[NowApproachingMidnight]

I agree with you about Palin. Palin intimidates other women with her beauty and success. Hell hath no fury. Most of the women I know (25-55) voted AGAINST Palin, not for Obama. Most of these women wanted Romney in. Women want a smooth talking, attractive, successful man over the same in another woman. IMHO.

[WashingtonSource]

I question the sample of “all different beliefs” in that show.

[normy]

Did Crazy Willie put you up to this?

[ilovesarah2012]

In politics, perception is more important than facts. If enough voters believe it was all “Bush’s fault”, Obama stands a good chance of being re-elected. That thought turns my stomach.

[Farnsworth]

Some of the bitter hatred for Palin by other women blew me away when i first ran across it.
I really just don’t get why...it’s just weird to me.

[magritte]

My experience is that women are not jealous of Palin, but they don’t buy her act and they think her schtick is all fake. A whole different perspective.

[RockinRight]

What part do they think is fake?

[Sarabaracuda]

No, it’s because Paul takes Democrat votes away from Obama to the point that Obama doesn’t even get 40%. Paul, on the other hand, drives away enough Republican voters so he doesn’t get 40% either.

[RichInOC]

In other words, they’re jealous, but they don’t want to admit they’re that shallow.