Would love to see that. It would be interesting to see what the district looks like after redistricting. Kaptur is strongest in the city of Toledo, and that city has been steadily losing population.
I think you are right that if he has any shot it will be as a result of redistricting. Kaptur has been hard core, lock-step with the unions for a couple of decades. She is likely to carry anything that is not a barbell-shaped district incorporating the wealthier northern suburbs of Columbus.
I really hope that the OH GOP doesn’t try to draw a district to defeat Kaptur—before you say anything, let me explain why. Toledo is heavily Dem, as is most of Lorain County further east (with the most heavily Dem lakeside areas in Sutton’s OH-13); in between is politically marginal territory. If GOP redistricters try to draw a winnable CD that includes Toledo, Kaptur would still be favored for reelection, and it would probably result in a Democrat also being elected from a Lorain-centric district (either Sutton or someone else). The most obvious move for Republicans in OH is to split up the two Dem strongholds in Sutton’s OH-13, with Lorain being given to Kaptur and the west side of Akron being given to Democrat Tim Ryan of Youngstown (who already represents eastern Akron), thus getting rid of Sutton. That’s actually easier to do than getting rid of Kucinich by combining his CD with Fudge’s black-majority Cleveland district (Kucinich represents too many Dem-leaning suburbs that wouldn’t fit in Fudge’s CD).
So I think that we should make Kaptur’s CD *more* Democrat, even if it would mean that Joe the Plumber won’t be able to beat her. Sorry, Joe, but the most important thing is to reduce the total number of Democrats elected to Congress from OH, and trying to defeat Kaptur would get in the way of that.