Really? Are you quite sure? Or are you simply using old markers in a new situation?
Because if you are underestimating her power for innovation, then you are not in control of enough variables to even know where to begin your probability calculation. Put another way, your guess starts out being no better than ours, and goes downhill from there, to the extent you are misunderstanding who she is.
My dad shared some interesting wisdom with me years ago. He pointed out that many of the most stunning military victories were based on innovation, and not just incremental innovation, but major leap innovation. For example, something we all take for granted now, the aircraft carrier, fundamentally altered the pacific theatre in WWII, by creating an ability to project air power at much greater distances than had ever been considered possible.
However, the problem (and the advantage) with innovation is that the other side often doesn't grasp or doesn't believe in the innovation, and is expecting the usual rules to apply. The American Revolutionary War is a good example of this. The Brits came at us in brave, tall-standing, numerous rows of red jackets, all out in the open, and were summarily mowed down in equally large numbers because we shot at them from behind every available rock and tree and bush. Their sense of how things should be and would be was governed by how they had always been, not how they could be in the hands of a creative personality.
Palin is just such a creative personality. In my extended family I have lived among bona fide geniuses, and she reminds me of them. She is an innovator, and has repeatedly proven her ability to outflank opponents trapped by outdated rules of engagement. It’s a free country, and you may bet as you wish, but I think you ignore her power to surprise you at your peril. I only wish to save you future embarrassment.
Peace,
SR
Or she is just messing with everyone.